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FBB MarketWatch Deep Dive: Kyle Hendricks

Each and every morning (including weekends) the Fantasy Baseball MarketWatch report drops on my twitter page (@MattyKiwoom).  Your one stop to see how players are trending and some advice on what to do given the up-to-date trends.  The daily reports are great but sometimes particular players need a deeper dive into their numbers.  Let’s jump into the data for a very frustrating player.

This pitcher in the NL Central was taken with fairly significant draft capital. Unfortunately for the team builders who roster him he is not returning value given his ADP.  I’m talking about Mr. Analytics, Kyle Hendricks.  What should you do if your roster this SP?  Keep reading to find out.

Kyle Hendricks

The Opening Day starter for the Chicago Cubs has not had the campaign he envisioned.  A month into the season his statistics are jarring.  Only 2 wins to 4 loses.  He has thrown 34.2 inning and surrendered 48 hits along with 24 earned runs.  At first glance, you can clearly see that Hendricks has a major home run issue.  The righty has been bashed for 11 dingers in 2021.  That is already more than he gave up through the entire 2020 season (10).  He accomplished this dreadful feat in 50 less innings might I add.  At this point of the season, Hendricks is rocking his worst HR/9 of his career.  To be completely honest, it is not even close.  Unfortunately for any team builders who roster Kyle Hendricks that is not his only issue.

Kyle Hendricks’s margin for error is razor thin compared to other starters.  His stuff does not fit the current template for success.  Hendricks doesn’t throw hard and must operate with precision to win.  Speaking of fastball velocity, Hendricks’s usually slow four seamer is even slower in 2021.  Last year the avg FB velo was 87.4 MPH and it is almost a full MPH lower this season.  In a league where all the hitters are looking to smash the ball 500 feet seemingly every at-bat it is tough to work with an 86.6 MPH “heater.”  Hendricks’s wFB & wFB/C are the worst of his 8-year career.  Not what you like to see from a SP that you selected with one of your first 10 picks.

Silver Linings

There are two indicators that suggest that better days are ahead for Mr. Hendricks.  Currently, Kyle Hendricks has a BABIP that is the highest of his entire career.  Not only is it high for Kyle historically, but it is also always over 30 points higher than the best projection systems had it.  Using BABIP when it comes to a pitch to contact hurler can get hairy, but a positive regression is entirely possible.  Potentially expected.  Something I think all of us rostering the Cubbie starter will welcome.

The last bit of hope for a Kyle Hendricks turnaround is his HR/FB rate.  After 34 innings pitched, Hendricks’s home run to fly ball percentage is 28.2%.  Yes, you read that correctly.  More than a quarter of the balls hit in the air off of Kyle Hendricks is leaving the ballpark.  And no, Hendricks has not pitched on the moon all season.  League average is about 9.5% & 13% is considered “Awful.”  Now Hendricks usually falls close to that “Awful” tier but come on.  That will come down throughout the season and the correction could prove to do wonders for the righty.

Roster Advice

First of all, there isn’t much to acquire if you’re selling Kyle Hendricks.  Try to not sell on players when they are at their all-time low in terms of the value within your league.  I know things have been bleak if you roster Kyle Hendricks.  Especially since he is supposed to be your SP 2 or 3.  My advice to any of those team builders would be to hold.  In the shallowest of leagues feel free to roster the flavor of the week instead.  In the H2H Points league that I play in, diamond hands bay bay.

Check out the Fantasy Baseball MarketWatch every single morning when the FBB market opens. Just search #FBBMarketWatch on twitter to follow whose value is up and who’s value is down and advice on what to do.

-@MattyKiwoom

-@HighHeatFBB

 

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