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FBB MarketWatch 4/8

The season is here and so is the FBB MarketWatch.  Your team building advisor.  FBB MarketWatch will highlight players and advice whether you should buy, sell, or hold.  I have always played fantasy baseball a bit like the stock market.  Trying to bring on players in optimal windows.  Moving on from players before they bottomed out.  I tend to lead my leagues in trade completed.  I would say it is my favorite aspect of fantasy sports.  So every Thursday after you listen to the latest episode of HHFBB come check out the FBB MarketWatch.

Casey Mize (DET)

The former 1st overall selection is the MLB Draft made his first start of the year.  Much like the start to his career, his 2021 debut had some ups and some downs.  Mize went 4 innings surrenders 5 hits, 2 walks, and 1 earned run.  He did strike out 4.  A strikeout an inning isn’t bad but when you factor in that he struck out the side in the 1st inning, it does change things a bit for me.  Like I said, it was an outing loaded with positives and negatives.  I was very happy to see an increased use in his slider.  In his limited sample size in 2020, Mize barely threw any breaking balls.  In his first start he threw his slide piece almost 27% of the time.  Very encouraging.  The 6’3’’ righty is rostered in less than 20% of leagues across most platforms.  I think the market is right with his ownership.  But watch that number skyrocket if Mize puts together a few strong starts.

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Advice

As of right now I am monitoring the Tiger but ultimately, I am leaving Casey Mize on waiver wires in most leagues.  He just didn’t show enough improvements from 2020.  Mize is projected to make 2 starts next week but the first matchup is against the Houston Astros.  If he holds his own against the Astros (the start is in Houston), I could convince myself to stream his 2nd start at Oakland.  And if Mize decreases his sinker usage by any significant margin, it may be smart biz to just add and stash regardless of the outcome.  If you roster Mize, he is a hold.  If he is a free agent in your league, I suggest you monitor but wait to add.

Ian Happ (CHC)

Anyone who selected Ian Happ had to use anywhere from a round 10 to a round 15 pick.  That makes him a significant asset.  The team builder who snagged him had semi high hopes when they made the selection.  So far in 2021, the Cubs outfielder has stunk.  He has only recorded 2 hits.  Granted that one was a homer, I would still imagine that his general manager is noticing the slow start.  Looking over his batted ball data it is easy to see that a turnaround could occur rather quickly.  Happ’s batting average is under .100 but his expected batting average is almost 3 times higher.  The switch hitter’s barrel % is better than 85% of the league.  Happ’s has hit the ball quite hard.  Just your run in the mill thing you love to see.  I also find it very encouraging that his walk rate looks fantastic so far this year.

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Advice

The clear move here is to hold if you roster Happ or even try to buy low.  Ian Happ is not really a marquee name just yet and that could be the day light you need to negotiate a deal.  It is always hard to acquire players via trade this early, but it is worth a shot.  I will not sit here and pretend to explain who you can trade because I do not know who is rostered.  I will say that ideally the play should be to sell high on a hot start.  If you can acquire Ian Happ, my advice would be to do so.

Dylan Bundy (LAA)

I feel like the right-handed starter has been on the fantasy radar for a decade.  Bundy was a top 100 pick in this past draft season.  His outings in 2021 have been good but his point totals have yet to be worthy of a double take.  Regardless of results Bundy has shown that his productive 2020 campaign was not a whisper in the wind.  In two starts the former top prospect has 16 strikeouts.  Bundy generated a laughable 40% CSW in his most recent start. (average is about 30%) The Angels ace is getting barreled a bit and that has led to the 5 earned runs in his 12 innings in 2021.  That could easily come down rather quickly which would just continue to fuel good performances.  Dylan Bundy’s pitch mix is very similar to what he was displaying in 2020 and I think that is encouraging.

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Advice

There isn’t a clear maneuver when it comes to Dylan Bundy.  I mean I wouldn’t move on until I was acquiring a firm top 12-15 projected starter.  If the team builder in your league has given any indication that Bundy is available than he certainly worth engaging.  Breaking down data this early in the season is tough because a cold streak or a hot run could sway the charts in a serious way.  But there is nothing in Bundy’s data that indicates a drop off is pending.  As long as his healthy holds up I do not see any reason why Dylan Bundy can’t finish as a top 20 starting pitcher again in 2021.

Be sure to come back next week for another edition of FBB MarketWatch.  Now get out there and wheel and deal.

Rankings: Matty Kiwoom’s Fantasy Baseball Positional Rankings – (couchguysports.com)

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 – Matt Desrosiers (@MattyKiwoom on Twitter)

 

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