The Colts Defense is Bad

The Colts defense is a juggernaut this year.

At least, that’s what the numbers tell you.

The ball hawking defense has bagged a number of turnovers, limited yardage, and prevented scoring.

However, I’m here to tell you that looks can be deceiving.

First Impression

Let’s talk about where the Colts currently sit atop the league.

Strap in, it is a long and impressive list.

  1. Points Allowed
  2. Points Scored (by defense)
  3. Passing Yards allowed
  4. Interceptions
  5. Rushing TDs
  6. Plays Run

The Colts are top ten in:

  1. All Turnovers
  2. Passing TD
  3. Rushing Att
  4. Rushing Yards
  5. TO %

The Colts have been elite in all aspects of defense.

The get off the field quick, with lots of turnovers. Getting off the field quickly is the sign of an effective unit.

Take nothing away from that unit. They have been elite. You just play who is in front of you, and they’ve certainly done that.

However, the teams they have played have been bad.

So, I am going to take something away from that unit.

Second Impression

The Colts have played some of the worst teams in the NFL.

They have played the punch less Jags, woeful Vikings, and historically bad Jets. It is a pathetic slate.

The Jaguars, if you remember, actually beat this Colts team for their only win. None of these squads has won a game yet otherwise this season.

What’s insane is that the luck continues for the Colts.

Coming up their schedule looks like this:

  • Bears (can’t find a quarterback, their record is a lie and we all know it)
  • Browns (hapless franchise that finds ways to lose regardless of talent)
  • Bengals (2-14 last season, still horrible)
  • Bye (can’t give up points if you don’t play!)
  • Lions (Matt Patricia is pathetic. I feel badly for Stafford, can he just be on a good team with a good coach once in his career?)

This team has a very good shot to be 6-1 heading into a rough stress that goals Ravens, Titans, and Packers. I would expect them to lose all those games truthfully.

So we will have to carry this lie on that the Colts are good for a good amount of time still.

The Colts seem to be the good bad team this year. Now, for the part where I give you two fun stats to back up my case.

Take Those Rose Colored Glasses Off

Yes, the schedule makes the Colts appear much better than they are.

Also, their field position, let by good special teams, has put them in position to succeed on defense (and offense.

The Colts have the best average starting field position in the NFL on offense (own 35) and the second best on defense (own 23).

That is a huge factor in defensive scoring metrics. That is why guru Bill Belichick harps on special teams so much.

Field position matters immensely for scoring. It’s why coffin punts and punts downed inside the 5 are so hype!

Not only that, but turnovers are not sustainable. 2 INT a game? Aaron Rodgers may not throw 2 in the season.

That is not a sustainable pace and will come back down to earth. Turnovers always regress toward the mean.

The only team that has ever consistently been near the top of the league for a long time is the Patriots (and to some extent) the Seahawks.

That’s another article. For now, just know the Colts will not get these turnovers every week. They lost against Gardner without turnovers, didn’t they?


Wake up sheeple! It is another fake good Colts team!

First round playoff out alert!

A final fun statistic.

The game against the Jets, the Colts defense’ expected points scored on defense was an unfathomable 22 according to pro football reference.

That means on average, a defense that went up against a putrid display as the Jets put on would be expected to score 22 points on it’s own.

Therefore, technically, the Colts defense underachieved that game.

Maybe I should have written about how truly AWFUL the Jets are this season? At least some things stayed the same in 2020.

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-Brent Buckley (@bigbucksbuckley on twitter)

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