NFL training camps are in full swing and the season is quickly approaching. With that, many fantasy leagues have been drafting in preparation for the upcoming season. If you haven’t, then the perfect place to get started is by following, Couch Guy Sports’ newest fantasy Youtube show “Your Fantasy: Two Dudes, Fake Balls.”
For some it’s the culmination of weeks, or a summers worth of draft prep for the opportunity to draft a team, try and nab that breakout candidate you feel strongly about and hope he doesn’t hurt himself in some weird way in training camp.
Bears’ starting running back David Montgomery was carted away from today’s practice after injuring his left leg. Montgomery slipped before he took a handoff from Mitchell Trubisky, went to the ground and got up holding his left leg, in serious pain, per @DickersonESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 26, 2020
Montgomery was about a fourth or fifth round pick this year, the 24th overall ranked running back.
But I digress, we are not here to talk about Chicago Bear running backs, no we are here to talk about the Patriots’ newest and most electric off season addition, Marqise Lee.
*Checks notes and blog title*
Whoops, sorry, I mean, Cam Newton!
*TO voice* that’s my quarterback pic.twitter.com/2FFvoIfjac
— brianna pirre (@bsp_13) August 26, 2020
Who, by the way, is already in mid season form with his hat game.
How many legendary pelts do you think Cam's hat cost to make? pic.twitter.com/h3lDsAfNG8
— The Ringer (@ringer) August 26, 2020
The fedora @CameronNewton is wearing in today's press conference is made by Meshika. There's a similar one in a lighter color that lists for $900.
That's swag I can get behind. Look good, play good.https://t.co/NRNqE2tZD6
— Eric Rueb (@EricRueb) August 26, 2020
Damn, $900 for a hat for a training camp, zoom press conference? I can’t wait to see what he pulls out for the Chiefs game on October 4th.
Let’s talk more about what he can do for you this season in fantasy football. According to Fantasy Pro’s, a website dedicated to fantasy sports. Cam is the 16th ranked quarterback. Which seems fair, that’s middle of the road among the 32 starting QB’s in the league.
And it seems like he is basically the starter for New England. I’m not sure if Stidham is healthy or not, but either way it seems as though he has lost some trust among the coaching staff.
Jarrett Stidham was healthy enough to throw in today’s 7-on-7 period. Went 6-for-6. Healthy enough to do 11-on-11 running game work, handing off. But he did not participate in the 11-on-11 hurry-up period.
Sixteen reps for Newton in that period. Nine for Hoyer.
— Phil Perry (@PhilAPerry) August 26, 2020
So let’s assume Cam is QB1 at 1 Patriot Place right now. Should you draft him for your fantasy team?
Now the obvious answer is, as my backup to Patrick Mahomes? Sure, why not? But let’s say you don’t have a quarterback and are at the late stages of the draft and are still looking for your starter, is Cam a viable choice on a potential championship roster?
I did a few mock drafts this morning and each time Cam went around rounds 11, 12 or 13. He was sandwiched between the likes of Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and Jimmy Garoppolo.
One could argue that if you have Wentz or Stafford on your team and grabbed them in rounds 11 or 12, that you hit a home run and your team looks stacked. So does grabbing Newton in that same spot, as your starter get the same reaction? Probably not, but should it?
Right now, according to Fantasy Pro’s, Cam is projected for about 263 points in standard scoring leagues, and 250 on ESPN. Which is an average of about 15 or so points per game if he plays all 16 games.
That is a fair and conservative estimate for Newton. He’s on a completely new team, he’s been banged up the last couple of years with his foot last season and off season shoulder surgery. And the Patriots weapons around him aren’t exactly enticing anyone to make a desperate leap for him.
But let’s take a look back at the last couple of productive years at Carolina. For the sake of keeping things fair, we are excluding his MVP 2015 season. It was a ridiculous, career year that is now five years removed.
In 2017, Cam put up close to 300 points, depending on your league scoring. And in 2018 around 280 in two less games. He actually averaged more points per game during the 2018 season, all while losing rushing touches and goal line chances to a breaking out Christian McCaffrey.
I think if you split the difference between those two seasons and project Cam for something around 290 points this season, he is all of a sudden in the same tier as Matt Ryan, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Pretty good company if you ask me.
Those numbers were posted with weapons around him that were not exactly world burning. Yes there was McCaffrey in 2018, who is now a consensus top two pick in fantasy. But no receiver went for over 1,000 yards. Only one receiver had 100 plus catches, and that was McCaffrey, the next closest, Devin Funchess with 55.
So even with for the most part, sub par weapons surrounding him, Newton was a top ten fantasy QB for those two seasons and was drafted as such.
You look at the Patriots weapons around Cam in 2020. You get a dependable weapon in Edelman back. I know people are leery on trusting Mohamed Sanu, but don’t forget his monster, ten catch game against Baltimore in only his second game with the Pats, and then battled through an ankle injury for the remainder of the season. And obviously Newton enjoyed having a receiving running back out of the backfield. And while Sony Michel just finally hit the practice field today, James White could see a lot of throws coming his way from number one this season.
A friend of mine had a big take when the Patriots first signed Newton, claiming that he was going to be the Pats top rusher this season. Which the more I think about it, could be a possibility. The Patriots have been a rotating door of running backs in years past, and if Cam is just a one year rental option before finding the franchise signal caller of the future, then why not add to the mileage for your own selfish gain. Which only adds to his fantasy value.
I think if you find yourself in that spot, with no QB when you reach double digit rounds, Cam is a perfect high risk, high reward play. That’s how you win fantasy championships. Since when does anyone brag about their fantasy team being so great with “Well for starters, I drafted Matt Stafford this year.”
Never, the answer is never. Winning a fantasy championship sometimes takes using brains and logic, but it also takes having the guts to take a risk and or flier on a guy who is being undervalued. Cam Newton will be a top ten QB this season in fantasy, and when you’ve won that sweet, sweet victory in December don’t forget to thank me.
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