Patriots Next 6 Weeks Are Critical

The New England Patriots took are of business this weekend against the Jets. The home team once again showed the team from NY that they’ll always be the “Little Brother” of the Division unless they completely revamp their entire organization. Top to bottom. Just a complete systemic reboot. But before I let myself get carried away, there’s bigger fish to fry. The next 6 weeks for the Patriots are critical if they want to make the playoffs.

In case you don’t know what those next 6 games are, I got you covered:

Every game is against a playoff team or a team that’s just on the cusp of a playoff spot. 4 out of those 6 games are against AFC teams that are currently ahead of you in the standings. The remaining 2 are against NFC teams. One of which shouldn’t be too tough of a game and the other against a floundering team with a bad starting QB. It’s a tough ask, but it’s almost a necessity that the Patriots win 4 games in this stretch. Ideally, 5 W’s would be great but there are some tough teams here.

But fret not Patriots fans. There is a very real and vert attainable way to go 4-2 or even 5-1 in this stretch. Here’s how.

Chargers:

Other than the Bills game, this is the toughest one of the bunch. But it shouldn’t be as difficult as some people are saying. If the defense can slow down Herbert, who hasn’t been as good as everyone thinks, this is a very winnable game. But the path to victory here isn’t going to be going toe-to-toe with Herbert. The offensive gameplan here should look very similar to what New England just did to the Jets. The Chargers are the worst team in the league when it comes to rush defense. That’s how you win this game and that’s how you beat the 6th seed in the AFC.

Panthers:

After starting the season with 3 straight wins, Carolina has dropped their last 4 games, with their Week 7 thrashing by the Giants being the most embarrassing. What initially looked like one of the tougher games early on in the season now has a different feel to it. Sam Darnold has come back down to Earth and the defense has been showing signs of weakness. While they’re still pretty good at defending both the pass and the run, they’ve shown that they’re not as good as they were in earlier weeks. Stephon Gilmore likely being back for this game complicates things, but the Patriots should be able to take their improving offense and stay in this game. And remember, Sam Darnold saw ghosts last time he played the Patriots, so look for that to happen again.

Browns:

Cleveland is currently in the 7 seed in the AFC. Who knows where these teams will be seeded once they play, but it’s likely they’ll both be fighting for one of the last playoff spots, so it’s important to have the tie breaker. This game was looking a lot more difficult when Baker Mayfield was healthy though. He’s now dealing with a pretty serious shoulder injury, so that works in the Pats favor here. The Browns are one of the best teams on the ground, so that’s where Belichick is going to have to focus is gameplan. And with an improving Pats rush D, things are trending in the right direction there. Mac is going to have to win this one through the air though, as Cleveland is real good against the run. This should be a W if you can run the ball.

Falcons:

Stop the pass and you win this one. Falcons are middle of the league in pass and rush defense, so they can be had. The Patriots just need to play a good game here and they win, there’s not much more to it. With Atlanta being an NFC team, a loss here wouldn’t be crushing, but it’s not ideal. Especially depending on what happens this week in regards to the AFC teams the Pats are trying to keep up with. That being said, this is a very winnable game and one that New England should come out on top of.

Titans:

This will be a tough one. The Titans gameplan is simple: run down your throat with Derrick Henry. If you can somehow slow him down, though, this defense is weaker than expected. They’re pretty good against the run, but bottom 8 against the pass as it currently sits. By this week, Mac and the Pats offense should be in rhythm, so that’s what you lean on here. And when it comes to the Titans offense, they can’t run the ball every play, right? So when Tannehill throws, you have to take advantage of that with sacks, incompletions and picks. If you can keep the pressure on their offense by scoring TD’s instead of FG’s, there’s a good chance you win here. But if Henry dominates this game, you may be walking out with an L. But this is still a game the Pats can win if they execute.

Bills:

I’m going to be honest with you here, I counted this as an L in my season predictions. A Primetime game at Buffalo is no easy battle. And with the Bills just having a better team than the Pats, this is going to be the toughest game on New England’s schedule. It’s unlikely you’re going to outscore the Bills so you have to keep this low scoring. If you can do that, you have a shot. But I like to be real with you guys when I write, so I think this is the one loss you can set your watch to out of these next 6 games. But if you’ve taken care of business heading into this one, this L shouldn’t hurt as bad.

In Conclusion:

Listen, I understand I’m talking about games that are 3, 4, 5 weeks out. Who knows what injuries might pile up or what these teams will look like when the game actually happens. But the bottom line is still this: The Patriots need to win a good amount of their next 6 games.

Taking care of business against the Chargers would be a great first step though. That gives you some leeway if you have to drop 2 out of the next 5. With the Browns trending downwards at the moment, you like to think you win there. It really comes down to the Titans and Bills. If you can split those games and (ideally) sweep the remainder, you’re in great shape. But even if you go 4-2 coming out of this stretch, all is not lost.

The AFC Playoff Picture currently looks like this: Bengals, Raiders, Titans, Bills, Ravens, Chargers, Browns. Odds are that 2 or 3 of those teams are going to stumble a bit and maybe get bounced from the playoff picture all together. The Patriots are the 9 seed right now (only because the Steelers had a Bye in Week 7) so they should very easily be able to slide into a playoff spot if they continue improving. And after this 6 game stretch, the Pats have a relatively easy remaining 4 games. They need to stay “In the Hunt” so when some of the teams in front of them flounder, they’ll be right there to take advantage.

All that being said, this is an exciting time as a Patriots fan. Buckle up for the next 6 weeks folks, it’s going to get wild.

(Featured Photo Credit www.patriotswire.usatoday.com)

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Mike Sullivan (@msully5433 on Twitter)