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Patrick Mahomes Is Not THAT Good

Recency bias is something we all get sucked into. Especially in our modern times where we get instant gratification from technology and social media, we are a society very much built upon, “what have you done for me lately?” And that idea rings very true in sports.

Michael Jordan had to release a 20 year old documentary just to remind people that he was a very good basketball player. I constantly am reminded that Tom Brady and the Patriots did not win the super bowl this past season and to “stop living in the past.” Trust me, thank your lucky stars you reading this probably live in New England where it’s safe to talk freely about Tom Brady in a positive context. I feel like Roger Williams in puritan Massachusetts Bay Colony out here in the mid-west.

Which brings me to my point, a tweet I saw yesterday that made me roll my eyes harder than I’ve ever rolled them before.

Out of four categories, Patrick Mahomes is in ALL four. No other QB is in all four categories. I know Mahomes is good, but he’s not THAT good.

Perhaps I am being spiteful, Mahomes and the Chiefs seem to be poised to replace the Brady-less, Patriots as the new kings of the AFC, although they did not go through the Pats to claim that title… cowards. But I can’t help but think to co-Couch Guy Sports blogger, Mike Gilligan’s post about the NFL treating Brady poorly.  And can’t help but feel like they are over correcting or just choosing to promote  and build up Mahomes more than they did Brady.

I digress, let’s break down this tweet shall we?

Arm Strength

I will keep this one short, Mahomes wins this category easily. The dude has a rocket and can sling it anywhere he wants. And is near the top of the league the last two seasons in yards per attempt. He can sling it, and if you value a big arm in your QB then the $5 investment into Mahomes here is an easy choice.

Alternate spin however, he can’t even throw as hard as a Tim Wakefield knuckleball…

Accuracy

Ok here is where I’m thrown off. Mahomes is an incredibly talented quarterback. I said at the end of the 2018 season that he was going to be the Steph Curry of the NFL and change the position and how the younger generation wants to play it. That said, Curry is an accurate shooter, Mahomes is not the most accurate of passers.

Last season Mahomes completed 65.9% of his passes, sounds like a good number but among other professionals at his position he was the 11th best passer in the NFL. Just above average but certainly not elite. Drew Brees led the way for the league at 74.3%.

But he was injured for part of last year which surely effected him, okay, I am a fair guy, let’s take a look at 2018. During his MVP year he was slightly better, completing 66% of his passes which ranked…. 16th. Literally average, in the dead middle of 32 starting quarterbacks. Again it was Drew Brees leading the way at 74%. Which is fairly reflected with Brees being the top choice for accuracy.

But Deshaun Watson and Kirk Cousins who both finished in the top 10 the last two seasons are not included for the section and have both been more accurate than Mahomes.

Rushing

This one makes zero sense to me. Yes Mahomes can scoot, and can scramble but I’ve never thought of him as an actual rusher. My guess is the person who created this had this play stuck in their head.

Great run, great play but that is like saying Tom Brady was a rushing threat going into the 2002 season because of his touchdown in the snow bowl. Or thinking Dwayne Haskins who ran the ball for 194 yards in college is a “running QB”

There are plenty of better choices than Mahomes here who has 500 career yards and four touchdowns in two seasons of rushing the football.

What about again Russell Wilson who is inexplicably off this section because of “reasons” while he has 3,993 rushing yards in his career, basically an average of 500 yards a season.

Or Kyler Murray, who in his rookie campaign already equaled Mahomes rushing accomplishments with 544 yards and four scores.

Hell, even Mitchell Trubisky is a more accomplished runner than Mahomes.

Mahomes honestly doesn’t even belong in this category in my opinion. His running ability mirrors that of Aaron Rodgers but not much else.

And don’t get me started as to why Gardner Minshew was included in this category.

Clutch

Remember the last section I said Mahomes being in the rushing category made zero sense?  Well this one makes negative sense. Yes, Mahomes brought the Chiefs back from double digit scores in all three games during the post season. But to put him ahead of all of these names and Tom Brady’s who’s GOAT status was built in the final minutes of big games is straight up laughable.

Congrats PFF, you just played yourself.

Mahomes has shown brief scenarios on big stages that he can be clutch, but let’s not start acting as though he is everyones first choice when it comes to the “Super Bowl on the line, down by four, two minutes to go” scenario.

Conclusion

Mahomes is an incredible, league altering talent. There’s no doubt about that. But let’s slow the roll on the Mahomes hype train. I’m sure it’s easy to get sucked into the belief that he’s unstoppable but he is not Michael Vick, with the accuracy of Peyton Manning and the nerves of steel of Tom Brady. He is good and let’s leave it at that.

My Picks

I destroyed this graphic down to its atomic level, seriously who researches this stuff? It took me 10 minutes to figure out better players at each spot with stats to back it up. Let’s say I play along with the game with my $15 here is the ideal QB I’m building out of their choices.

Arm Strength: Matt Stafford $2

Accuracy: Matt Ryan $1

Rushing: Lamar Jackson $5

Clutch: Tom Brady $4

In case you can’t math, that’s $12, I saved $3 from this stupid exercise, and didn’t select any shares of Patrick Mahomes just to prove it could be done.

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Connor Ryan (@connoryan68)

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