NFL: Damar Hamlin Shouldn’t Be The Favorite For Comeback Player of The Year Award.
There is three more weeks left of the NFL regular season. Contenders are becoming more clear. Not just for playoff spots, but individual awards as well. Some award races are still up in the air, while some have a more clear favorite. Cowboys DE/LB Micah Parsons is in a close race for DPOY with Browns DE Myles Garrett. But on the other hand, CJ Stroud is far and away the favorite for the OROY award (-6000 odds on FanDuel).
There is one award, who’s betting favorite, shouldn’t be. That is the Comeback Player of The Year Award. The current favorite, at -600 odds according to FanDuel, is Bills S Damar Hamlin. Last season, Hamlin suffered a form of cardiac arrest on the field against the Bengals. It came after he landed a hit on Bengals WR Tee Higgins, back in January. 4 months later, he was cleared to play again.
The road to recovery that Hamlin has had is inspirational. The fact is though, he isn’t the most deserving player of this award. The stats back up that claim. Below, I will outline why Hamlin isn’t deserving of it. And spotlight the 2 players that should win the award over the former Pitt Panther.
Hamlin’s Production Is Down
Last season, before the cardiac episode, the former 6th round pick was having a solid season. In 15 games, Hamlin racked up 91 combined tackles, 6 TFL, and 1 Forced Fumble. He had more tackles and TFL than the Vikings Harrison Smith, one of the top Safeties in the game. He had a consistent impact on their defense.
Fast forward to this season, and it’s a dramatic change, not in the good way. To this point in the season (week 16), Hamlin has only played in 4 games. With only 2 tackles to his name. The Comeback Player of The Year award isn’t for a player that declines in production. Especially so drastically. Is his usage way down because they want to ease him back in? Maybe so. Either way, he’s not fit for this award.
Here are the two players that are more deserving of the accolade.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1600 odds to win, per FanDuel)
Mayfield is coming off a game against the Packers, in which he threw for a perfect passer rating (158.3). Which just adds to the already solid season he has been having under center. While the Bucs only have a .500 record (7-7), they currently sit atop the NFC South, at the #4 seed in the NFC. The former Heisman Trophy Winner has made a huge jump from last season’s performance.
At the end of the 2021 season, the Cleveland Browns traded Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers. During the 2022 season he started 6 games for the Panthers. They released him on December 5, a day later the Los Angeles Rams claimed him. The University of Oklahoma alum finished the season in LA. Combined between the two stops, he started 10 games, threw for 2,163 yards at a 60.0% completion rate. Along with 10 TDs and 8 INTs.
So far this season, Baker has leaped and bounded over those numbers. In 14 starts down in Tampa, he has 3,315 yards, at a 63.5% completion rate and 24 TDs to 8 INTs. If you don’t call that a major improvement, then you have too high of standards. There is a sizable improvement in each category. Not to mention the fact that he has the same amount of INTs in 4 more more starts. Which in itself is a great sign.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+10000 odds to win, per DraftKings)
“Minshew Mania” hit the league a few years back when he was with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The past couple seasons, the man sometimes called “Mustache”, has served as a backup to Jalen Hurts in Philly. Before being signed by the Colts this past March. He was set to backup #4 overall pick Anthony Richardson. But the Florida product went down with a season ending shoulder injury in Week 5. Since then it’s been “Minshew Mania” time in Indy.
With Philly in 2022, the Wazzu alum played in 5 games (2 starts). Accumulating 663 yards, at 57.9% completion rate to go with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. This year, he’s taken the reins and held them steady. In 10 starts, he’s thrown for 2,739 yards at a 63.3% completion rate, along with 14 TDs to 8 INTs. Leading the team to a 6-4 record. The TD/INT ratio doesn’t jump off the page at you. To put it in a different perspective, Minshew’s completion % is better than CJ Stroud, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love.
The Narrative Is Good, But Doesn’t Do Enough
I understand the narrative the NFL and sportsbooks are going with having Hamlin as the favorite. Like I said, the story is inspiring and the fact he recovered so quickly is amazing. But awards are supposed to be about performance in this league, not backstories. Hamlin’s performance hasn’t lived up to deserving this award. Minshew and Mayfield’s performances on the other hand, have for sure lived up to the expectation for this award.