MLB: Projecting The Red Sox 2024 Opening Day Starting Rotation
The MLB Off-Season is in full swing, with the Winter Meetings having just ended. The biggest move so far being Star OF Juan Soto being shipped to the Bronx Bombers from the Padres. The Red Sox are a team that haven’t been quiet, but haven’t really went “big” on any moves. Besides shipping OF Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for 3 RHP prospects.
Speaking of pitchers, the Sox have been said to have interest in more than a couple Free Agent arms. Including Japanese sensation RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As well as LHP Jordan Montgomery, who just helped the Texas Rangers win their first ever World Series title. The “Beantown Boys” were bottom 10 in Team ERA this past season. So it’s safe to say, their rotation could use an upgrade.
While there is still a lot of off-season left, it’s a good time for a starting rotation projection. Below, is my prediction of who will take the mound for one of the most storied franchises, next season.
SP1: LHP Chris Sale #41
Hoping he can stay healthy through Spring Training. The 34-year old Sale, should be the choice to take the mound for the Sox, in Seattle on March 28th. Having pitched in only 31 games over the last 3 seasons, Red Sox fans aren’t that optimistic. But some, including myself, still hold out a little bit of hope that the 7x All-Star can get through most of the season unencumbered.
Sale will be 35, two days after the season starts. He’s on the books for $27 million this year. The extension he signed back in 2020 included a club option, worth $20 million for the 2025 season. If his body can’t hold up, the Red Sox may lean towards declining the option, making him a Free Agent. So, if Sale is to continue his career in Boston, he better do all he can to stay out of harm’s way.
SP2: LHP Jordan Montgomery #52
As mentioned before, the 30-year old Lefty is fresh off a World Series win with the Texas Rangers. While there is a good chance he sticks around for a chance at a repeat. The 6-foot-6 hurler showed other teams that he was worth at least a conversation, if not a contract offer. His postseason performance might not have been the best (10 ER off 37 Hits, 17 Ks). But during the regular season, Montgomery was very solid. Racking up 166 Ks, in 188.2 IP. With a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
The Red Sox could really use another veteran in their rotation, as the experience otherwise is pretty low. He probably won’t command as much as a Blake Snell would, salary wise. Which is good for Boston. Montgomery is said to be spending his off-season working out in Boston. Meaning the chances of a meeting between Chief of Baseball Ops Craig Breslow, and the former 4th round pick are pretty good.
SP3: RHP Tanner Houck #89
The 27-year old righty from Missouri, didn’t have the best season this past year. It was the first season since being brought up in 2020, that Houck started every game he took the mound in (21). As well as the most innings he has pitched in a season yet (106.0) Meaning it was bit of a “new” territory for Houck to enter into. Not saying any of that excuses his 5.01 ERA, by any means really. Although they should be taken into consideration.
If the rotation was stronger, I would say put the former Mizzou Tiger back in the bullpen. But as you will see, behind Houck , I have the rotation still being fairly young/inexperienced. I am hoping that the “new” territory he entered last season prepares him better to take on even more innings this coming season.
SP4: RHP Brayan Bello #66
Bello, a former top-10 ranked Sox prospect (2022), suited up for just his second season of action in Boston this past year. At only 24-years old, the Dominican born righty still has untapped potential. In 28 games started and 157.0 IP this year, Bello got pretty good taste of what he’s up against. He sent 132 opponents walking back to the bench, to a tune of 7.6 K/9. Which isn’t jump off the page numbers but shows he has the right stuff to get swings and misses.
If he ends up having even half the season, his idol Pedro Martinez had consistently, it will be a major contribution for the Sox this coming season.
SP5: RHP Garrett Whitlock #22
This season was a bit of an injury-plagued one for the former Rule 5 Draft pick. Going out with elbow injuries twice in the year. The UAB alum, was used mostly out of the bullpen. Starting only 10 out of 22 games played. In his 3 seasons, the bullpen has been the main place the 27-year old finds himself on the depth chart. But if Montgomery is the only starter they sign this off-season (hoping they sign him), then Whitlock will have to get used to being a rotation guy. Having struck out more batters than innings pitched, every season so far, is a pretty solid sign he can handle a bigger workload.
Putting him at the end, before going back to Sale, is a better bet than either Bello or Houck. At least to have consistency two games in a row starting pitcher wise.
There’s a good chance I get this projection completely wrong. The off-season still has a long ways to go. But, with the Red Sox history of recent free agency moves, even with Breslow in charge now. This is how I see the rotation looking come March 28th.