Lock, Fade And Stay Away (9/20/20)
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Lock(s):
Denver Nuggets +7.5 (1.15u/1u)
The Denver Nuggets are looking to try and even the series tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. Tonight is a key game for them as if they go down 2-0 in this series, this series is big time over. Denver’s young core looked good in the first half of Game One, but in the second half LeBron, AD and company took it to a whole different gear. Los Angeles outscored Denver 33-20 in the third quarter, and that was when the game got out of reach. Denver was up after one, but then the Lakers pulled away. If Denver wants to win a game in this series, they have to dominate the third quarter like they did in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. I see this game being a lot closer than Game One and with that being said lock in Denver +7.5 as I am risking 1.15 units to make 1 unit in this one.
Cincinnati Reds -117 (1.17u/1u)
The Cincinnati Reds are currently in the post season based on standings, as they have yet to claim a playoff spot yet. The Reds have the White Sox in town still as they are trying to take two out of three from them. Cincinnati is throwing out Michael Lorenzen while the White Sox are having Dylan Cease on the bump for them. Chicago is fighting for the division title still, but the Reds are hungry and want that playoff spot. I love the Reds in this one and the White Sox don’t have Moncada or Grandal in the lineup today. Lock in the Reds money line here as I am risking 1.17 units to make 1 unit in this one.
Fade:
New York Mets -118
Today is Rick Porcello day for all you Mets fans and you know what that means. FADE FADE FADE the Mets today! Here is why; the Mets are 2-8 in games that Rick Porcello has started in this season. He also has gotten rocked in both of his starts against the Braves this season so far. The Mets offense produced last night and the Braves didn’t. That won’t continue today as I see the Braves bouncing all over Porcello like they have already twice this season. Fade the Mets today, as they can’t win with Rick Porcello on the mound.
Stay Away:
Over 7.5 (Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs)
We have a great Sunday Night Baseball pitching matchup tonight. As we have Jose Berrios on the bump for the Twins, and then we have Yu Darvish on the mound for the Cubs. One stat to look at is in the ten starts made by Yu Darvish this season the under has hit in six out of ten times. Also it has hit in four out of his last five starts as well. For Berrios’ starts the under is 6-3-1 in his ten starts as well. Both pitchers are going to be dialed in, and this game is going to be like what we saw on Friday night. Under city is going to strike in this one, so you should stay away from the over in this one.
-Chris Jones (@cjoneswho1212)
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