Lock, Fade And Stay Away (9/12/20)
If you want the rest of my lock(s) for the day, and all of Fiesta’s lock(s) make sure you are following us on twitter (@thechasers617). Also give our podcast a listen on Sound Cloud (@thechasers). With that being said here are some of my lock(s) for today, my favorite to fade, and my bet to stay away from today.
Lock(s):
Over 216 (Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers) (1.1u/1u)
The under has been the trend in this series, but tonight I see the trend ending. This Game Five is huge for the Rockets, as they are on the brink of elimination. They will leave everything out on the floor tonight as they will look to push this series to six games at least. Houston is a good scoring team, and one thing is that with the loss of House Jr. it leaves one less body for Houston to use on the floor. Which means more minutes for Westbrook and Harden, which could lead to more points being put up.
In Game Four I thought the role players needed to play a big role in scoring. That happened for the Lakers, and not so much for the Rockets. Tonight we will see the Rockets click on all cylinders on offense, and for us to lock in the over in this one. I am risking 1.1 units to make 1 unit on that play.
Dallas Stars +150 (1u/1.5u)
The Dallas Stars have been outplayed the majority of this series, and they still lead the series 2-1. Dallas is two games away from their first Stanley Cup Final since 1999-2000. They will do everything they can to take the 3-1 lead in this series to put Vegas on the brink of elimination. Vegas needs Fleury in net I strongly believe that. He is a former Stanley Cup winner, and I believe he is what is holding Vegas back from taking control of this series. I like the Stars tonight as I see great value in this pick. I am also three for three on picks in this series, and tonight I am going with the value of the Stars at +150. Lock in Dallas on the moneyline as I am risking 1 unit to make 1.5 units.
Fade:
New York Mets -180
The New York Mets gave deGrom all of the runs last night in their blowout win over the Blue Jays. I don’t see that happening again today as we have tonight’s pitching matchup being Seth Lugo for the Mets going up against Robbie Ray for the Jays. I think Toronto’s offense is going to show up today as I don’t see them only putting up one run yet again today. Lugo has pitched well since transitioning into a starter, but I think the Blue Jays lineup will jump on him today. I am fading the Mets as I don’t think they will put on the same type of performance that they did last night.
Stay Away:
Boston Red Sox +1.5
The Rays lineup last night woke up and led them to a 11-1 win, and tonight they have Glasnow on the mound for them which is a huge no no if you like the Red Sox. Tampa Bay are 6-2 in Glasnow’s starts and have won his last five starts. The Rays are going to dominate again today, as I love them on the run line. Tampa is just an all around better team than Boston at this very moment. Boston is too inconsistent to try and bet. With that being said I am staying away from the Red Sox on the run line today.
-Chris Jones (@cjoneswho1212)