Lock, Fade, And Stay Away (7/21/20)

Here is my lock of the day, my favorite to fade, and my game to stay away from for the day.

Lock: Arsenal +115

My lock for today is Arsenal at +115 on the road against Aston Villa. In their last ten meetings with Aston Villa, Arsenal has a 8-1-1 record against them and has won their last six meetings against one another. Arsenal has also been in great form as of late as they are 5-1-3 in EPL action since the restart. They also beat both Liverpool and Manchester City in the last week in the same week. That alone is giving me confidence as they take on Aston Villa who is destined for relegation.

Fade: AC Milan -105

AC Milan has been playing well since the restart with their 6-2-0 record. Their opponent Sassuolo has been the same as they have a 4-4-1 record since the restart. Sassuolo has played some of the top teams of the table since the restart. Since the restart Sassuolo has a 1-2-1 record against the top five teams in Serie A. With AC Milan being one spot ahead of Sassuolo in the table should create an interesting matchup. AC Milan also has a big game against Atalanta coming up on Friday, which could lead to them potentially looking ahead of Sassuolo. Sassuolo has proven to be a tough test and AC Milan will see that today on the pitch.

Stay Away: Under 3 (Watford vs Manchester City)

Personally I am the first one to love a good under in a soccer game, but this matchup is pushing me the opposite way. In Watford’s last five games every game the over total has hit. For the last three Manchester City premier league games the game has gone over as well. In the last ten meetings between Watford and Manchester City the over has hit seven out of ten times. Manchester City is coming off of a terrible performance in the FA Cup Semifinal against Arsenal, and will be looking to right the ship. Manchester City could easily hit the over by themselves in this matchup, so watch for them to right the ship. If you are to take action in the game make sure it is the over not the under.

-Chris Jones (@cjoneswho1212 on twitter)