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FBB MarketWatch Recap 8/23-8/27

Welcome to the FBB MarketWatch Recap for 8/23-8/27.  Every day I post a Twitter thread breaking down a snapshot of the fantasy baseball market (#FBBMarketWatch). This is just a recap of the previous week. Data may have changed but the overall trends may still hold true. We all need a little advice from time to time and the FBB MarketWatch wrap-up may hold a nugget or two that leads to you making your decision to move on or even acquire a player.

8/23

SS/OF Amed Rosario, Cleveland Guardians (UP!)

->Been of fire since All-Star Break (33 games). Rosario has a 146 wRC+, .352/.379/.535, .183 ISO, .386 wOBA & .914 OPS! Resulting in 18 XBH, 40 runs+RBI & 4 SB. .409 BABIP is high but is supported by a 50.8 GB% & 42.6 HardHit%. He sits in the 5th PCTL Brl% & 8th PCTL CHASE% and that suggest prolonged slumps are possible. Available in just under half the leagues, if you need his production now add.  But I am okay with selling while he is hot if he is a surplus on your roster.

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OF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners (DOWN)

->Slashing .172/.271/.310, .138 ISO, .581 OPS, 27 runs+RBI, 0 for 4 on SB attempts & 67 wRC+ since being recalled (7/16). His .213 BABIP could be a glimmer of hope BUT 3.8 Brl%, 35.4 HardHit%, 107.8 maxEV, 50.6 GB%, 13.8 SwStr% & 28.6 K% is enough suggest ‘21 isn’t his year.  Drop in all redraft formats.  If you believe this is fixable (I do) buy now in dynasty.

SP/RP Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians (UP)

->Since 7/4 (10 GS): 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 1.04 WHIP & 7.58 K/9. Quantrill’s 4.3 Brl%, 4.35 SIERA, 48.5 GB% & 4.19 xFIP suggests surface stats aren’t overly inflated and could continue. Having a 28.5 K% & 19.8 K-BB% over last 5 GS is very exciting. 31% CSW last night against LAA…ADD where ever you can.

8/24

OF Joc Pederson, Atlanta Braves (DOWN)

-> He has a 48 wRC+, .243 wOBA, .555 OPS, .143 ISO & .179 BA over last 10 games. BUT .200 BABIP, 47.6% HardHit rate, 111.1 maxEV, 26.1 O-Sw% & 7.4 SwStr% in that span is good to see. Looking under the hood it looks like merely a cold streak. AND since ASB Pederson is hitting .273, 13.5 K% & has a 124 wRC+ against LHP. We all know that Joc Pederson can catch fire so he should be on everyone’s watchlist.

DH/OF Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (UP!)

->Racked up 5 HR, 4 2B, 32 runs+RBI, 1.020 OPS & 181 wRC+ since 8/1. Looking at his underlying metrics: 20.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%, 50% HardHit rate, 122.2 maxEV (insanity) & 28.3 O-Sw% are positive signs for trends to continue. Now OF eligible makes him so much more valuable. Hold if you roster. Buy if you can.

1B Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros (UP)

->Having a fantastic season. Slashing .317/.383/.479, .325 wOBA, 131 runs+RBI, 0.92 BB/K & 140 wRC+. And has been consistent all season. Hits in the best part of an elite offense. Barring injury I don’t a fall off on the horizon. Top 5-7 1B in pts formats. Hold onto 1 of the best draft day hits.

1B/3B/OF/DH Yoshi Tsutsugo, Pittsburgh Pirates (UP)

->Tsutsugo is 6/18 w/ 3 HR, 8 runs+RBI, 53.8 HardHit% & 23.1 LD% since getting PT from PIT (8/16). His .300 BABIP, 0% BB-rate, 27.8% K-rate & 30.3% O-Sw% suggests this is has a short shelf life. Should get a ton of ABs for PIT.  Why not ride the hot wave? Add until the cliff shows itself.

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8/25

1B/OF Dom Smith, New York Mets (DOWN)

->Smith’s 2nd half has been awful (35 games). .221/.258/.303, .082 ISO (2 HR), 21 runs+RBI, .245 wOBA & 55 wRC+. xSTATS suggest he could be producing a tad more BUT 39.9 HardHit%, 6.8 Brl%, 32.8 CHASE% & 27.3 WHIFF% are enough for me not to listen to the xSTATS.  At this stage of the season, it is okay to move on.

SP Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays (DOWN)

->Berrios’s 1st 2 GS after trade were great (0.75 ERA) but the next 3 have been bad. Posting an 8.76 ERA, .448 wOBA against, 7.8% K-BB rate, 5.04 FIP & 5.37 xFIP. Over those last 3 GS, the RHP is getting hit hard! 11.1 Brl%, 48.9 HardHit% & 28.9% line drive rate.  Even when you add those 1st 2 great games pitched, his SIERA is 4.31. Meh. However, I still believe he is a legit fantasy SP & his season long 89 xFIP- indicates as much.  Hold on and things will turn around.

RP Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox (DOWN)

->Posting a 7.94 ERA with 3 L, 2 BS & 6.00 FIP since 7/11 (15 app). The underlying metrics do not bring optimism. All these metrics are down from early season marks (4/4-7/10): K-BB% is down 22%, Brl% is up 3.9%, O-Sw% is down 4.1%, SwStr% is down 2% & SIERA has gone up 2.15 runs. Not good.  Sell if you can, hold if you can’t.  But time is running out quickly.

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3B/SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Texas Rangers (UP)

->Since 8/1: .307/.337/443, 9 XBH, 1 SB, 93.4 Contact%, .321 BABIP, 6.5 K% & 11 runs. Lack of SB is an issue even amidst the hot streak. Season long .313 xwOBAcon, 2.3 Brl% & 32% CHASE rate aren’t suggesting a high ceiling.  If you roster you are certainly happy for the uptick in production but if you don’t no need to add. Keep him on your watch list.

8/26

SP Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays (UP)

->Last 3 GS: at least 7 IP, 5 hits, no more than 2 ER & the K totals. 8, 11, & 14! On the season: career best K-BB% (24.3), O-Sw% (33), SwStr% (15.1), xFIP (3.37) & SIERA (3.29). Going to make a ton of money in the off season as a FA. I am completely buying his current trends.

OF Kyle Schwarber, Boston Red Sox (UP)

->He has posted a 201 wRC+, 1.100 OPS & .472 wOBA since debuting w/ BOS (9 games). His 18.2 Brl%, 45.5% HardHit rate & 1.14 BB/K suggest he is very comfortable at the plate and production should continue. His xSTATS back his surface stats and that is enough for me to hold and hope he helps me win a championship.

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OF Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics (DOWN)

->The ’21 campaign has been good for Canha BUT he is currently slumping. Since 8/1: .148/.274/.222, 1 HR, .074 ISO, .238 wOBA & 52 wRC+. Safe to say he is cold right now. Still making contact which is positive just not hard contact so it is being wasted. .352 xwOBAcon & 106.8 maxEV (lowest in career) are concerning. I am ready to move on especially if you need wins now.

SP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (DOWN)

->His ERs over last 3 GS: 4, 6, 5. He had given up 21 hits & 4 HR over that span. BUT looking under the hood: 2.92 xFIP, 10.02 K/9, 53.4 GB%, 3.06 SIERA, 3.3 Brl% & 39.9 O-Sw% tell me that he will right the ship quickly. If you have a buy window do it!

8/27

SS/2B Ramón Urías, Baltimore Orioles (UP)

->Slashing .324/.390/.622 with .425 wOBA, .297 ISO & 174 wRC+ over his last 10 games. Batted ball data is great! Rocking a 62.5 HardHit%, 16.7 Brl% & 25% LD-rate. He will certainly have some bad games. 31.7 K% is high & his .455 BABIP will come down. Still worth rostering while on fire.  Add him, the Oriole infielder is widely available.

SP Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (UP)

->15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 12.33 K/9, 51.4 GB%, 1.04 WHIP & 29.5% K-BB rate! Once fully stretched out & SL sheds the rust, Sale will he back to SP1 territory. His 37.6 O-Sw%, 15.4 SwStr% & 2.65 SIERA backs his production. 100% LOB rate will come down but so will 30% HR/FB! If you held on to Sale all year, he is starting to pay off in a massive way.

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DH/OF JD Martinez, Boston Red Sox (DOWN)

->As an OF in ‘21 (107 AB): .224 BA, 2 HR (2%), 9 RBI & 68 wRC+. As a DH in ‘21 (354 AB): .297 BA, 21 HR (6%), 70 RBI & 144 wRC+. 1 for last 21 (3/5 GP in OF) you have to hold on because he is such a fantastic hitter but I am ready to bench whenever he plays the OF & start when he is BOS’s DH.

Now that you’re caught up on this past week’s FBB MarketWatch, have a great weekend.

Check out the FBB MarketWatch recap every single morning when the FBB market opens. Just search #FBBMarketWatch on twitter to follow whose value is up and who’s value is down and advice on what to do. Also, make sure to always check out High Heat for more fantasy baseball talk.

-Matty Kiwoom

Twitter: @MattyKiwoom

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