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FBB MarketWatch Recap 8/16-8/20

Welcome to the FBB MarketWatch Recap for 8/16-8/20.  Every day I post a Twitter thread breaking down a snapshot of the fantasy baseball market. This is just a recap of the previous week. Data may have changed but the overall trends may still hold true. We all need a little advice from time to time and the FBB MarketWatch wrap-up may hold a nugget that leads to you making your decision to move on or even acquire a player.

8/16

Triston McKenzie (UP)

->Since 8/1: 3 GS, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, .139 BAA, .184 wOBA, 27 K%, 25.7% K-BB rate (love it) & 2.80 FIP. xFIP (3.85) & SIERA (3.37) suggest surface stats are completely unsustainable. 1 BB over this span is great to see.  This is enough to get me to buy in.  See if you can bring him aboard for the end of your season.

Will Smith (UP)

->3 HR over weekend series. .373 ISO since ASB. Has become a top catcher option in FBB. He now has a 137 wRC+, .878 OPS & .403 xwOBAcon this season. xSTATS suggest the production is not a mirage. 10.4% Brl rate & 21.2% CHASE rate should keep him from prolonged slumps.  If you got him on the squad you are more than happy to hold.

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Carlos Carasco (DOWN)

->Surrendered 10 ER, 4 HR, 4.8% K-BB rate, 1.1 SwStr%, 18.8% Brl rate & 50 HardHit% over his last 2 GS. Things have not gone well for Cookie. However, the .500 BABIP in those starts will certainly positively regress & LOB% (31.3) will also improve. FB & CH needs to get better.  Next start is against the Dodgers (yikes) but I think better days are ahead so hold for now.

Sean Manaea (DOWN)

->The lefty has a 2-4 W-L record, 5.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12.3 Brl% & 113.2 mph maxEV since 7/1. Looking under the hood: 3.19 SIERA, 3.05 xFIP, 11.41 K/9, 33.1 O-swing %, & 24.3 K-BB% suggest he could be a bit unlucky. 10 HR (27 HR/FB%) is an issue but I may be looking to acquire if the price is right.

8/17

Dansby Swanson (UP)

->Since 8/1: .379 BA, .259 ISO, .437 wOBA, 13% Brl rate & 172 wRC+. That has translated to 3 2B, 4 HR & 29 runs+RBI. Oh, and add 2 SB. July was also good for Swanson. Now his 162 game pace: 32 HR & 184 runs+RBI which is fantastic!  Acquire if you can in dynasty.

Jo Adell (DOWN)

-> He hasn’t popped since being called up. 0 HR, 1 SB, .319 SLG. Looking deeper into his underlying metrics: 29.4% K rate, .085 ISO, .344 BABIP & 72 wRC+ which doesn’t add any confidence. On top of that his 9.4 Brl% (20th PCTL), 34.4 HardHit% (34th PCTL) & 5.9 BB% (13th PCTL) is enough for me to drop in redraft formats.

Jonathan India (UP!!)

->Since 8/1 (15 games): 19 hits, 6 2B, 6 HR, 29 runs+RBI & 171 wRC+. His K rate in that span is a bit concerning (32.8) but his approach at the plate seems to support it. 80th PCTL or better in xwOBA (81), BB% (85), CHASE rate (87), & SprintSpeed (86). NL ROY! Bring him aboard if you can but I doubt anyone is selling.

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Dallas Keuchel (DOWN)

->Even when he performs it barely helps you in your matchup. Currently holds career worsts in: HardHit% (40.2%), Brl% (9.3%), K% (14.2%) & xERA (5.98). Positive runValue on 4/5 offering which is very bad. Getting wins is about all he provides.  Time to drop and find a pitcher with higher upside.

8/18

Chris Bassitt (Thoughts & prayers)

->Scary moment last night. Sending all the positive vibes his way. Hope for a speedy recovery.

Fernando Tatis Jr (To the Moon)

->Simply amazing when healthy. His 162 game pace: 61 HR, 284 runs+RBI & 41 SB. Oh-my-gawd! Congrats if you roster him and let’s all hope he can remain healthy.

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Patrick Wisdom (DOWN)

->Since the beginning of August: .200/.241/.345, .145 ISO (2 HR/2 2B) & 57 wRC+. These stats came w/ .333 BABIP & 44.1% K-rate. Not signs of future success. BUT Brl% (15%), HardHit% (52.8%) & maxEV (111.5 mph) prove he can go on surges. If you need pop he is worth a shot.

Emmanuel Clase (UP)

->Has only given up 2 ER, 1 BS since ASB (7/16). Recorded 1,42 ERA, 3 Holds, 6 SV & 13 SO in that span. Under the hood: 41.1 O-swing%, 19 SwStr%, 27.3% K-BB rate & 100.4 FBv.  Seems to be the CP in CLE for the foreseeable future. Bring him aboard if you need a closer.

Mike Moustakas (DOWN)

->Since returning from IL (8/6): 63 wRC+, 30% K-rate & has 5 HardHit balls (3 came on 8/6). Hasn’t hit a LD since 8/7. Could be rust & his track record is enough to roster BUT he is sitting against LHP due to other options. Hold for now but if you need to win ASAP I understand moving on.

8/19

Shohei Ohtani (To the Moon)

->167 wRC+, 40 HR, 167 runs+RBI & 18 SB, wow, xSTATS > surface STATS. .379 ISO, 119 mph maxEV, 25.2 Brl%, .605 xwOBAcon & 56% HardHit rate are unreal. .310 BABIP & 30.6% K-rate suggest luck isn’t a factor. Historic season. Oh! And he pitches

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8-1 record 2.79 ERA, 120 K & 1.06 WHIP. These surface STATS are backed by 20% K-BB rate, 3.74 SIERA, 6.3 Brl%, 13.4 SwStr% & 3.27 xERA. 4 of 5 offerings have a -3 pVAL or better. Truly one of a kind player.  Hold and bask in the greatness.

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Adam Frazier (DOWN)

->Since being dealt (84 PA): .241 BA, .271 BABIP, 3 XBH (0 HR), .291 SLG, .051 ISO, 58 wRC+ & 0 barreled balls! Was a SELL high candidate & now you may be too late. Still bats at the top & plays most days so I guess hold and hope for a run scoring bonanza.

Avisail Garcia (UP)

->Having a good year. .274/.331/.500 w/ .838 OPS, .226 ISO, 48% HardHit rate, 12.1% Brl rate & 121 wRC+. All this with a fair .306 BABIP. He is living up to the hype after landing in MIL a year late but it’s great to see. xSTATS & PlateIQ suggest it is sustainable. Bring him unto the squad in you can.

Wander Franco (UP)

->.305 BA, .300 BABIP, .388 wOBA, 7 XBH, 26 runs+RBI & 154 wRC+ over his last 15 games. Also showing insane Plate IQ (7.7 BB% / 9.2 K%) for his age. If HardHit% & Brl% improves than he is a complete fantasy superstar. Trying to get him on your squad is a lost cause but if you somehow can…do!

8/20

Shane McClanahan (UP)

->34.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 29% K-rate, 3.45 SIERA since the ASB. Not a fluke the young LHP is here to stay. 22.1% K-BB rate, 42.4 GB%, 3.09 xFIP, 34.6 O-swing%, 14% SwStr% support the solid surface stats.  If you can add him to your roster…do it

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Joey Wendle (DOWN)

->Was off to a great start but has lost PT. Over his past 30 games: 0 HR, 7 RBI, 33/3 K/BB ratio, .248 BA, .337 BABIP & 68 wRC+. Even with the positon versatility he just isn’t providing much. 65% of ya, feel free to let him go.  It is time to drop Wendle.

Matt Chapman (UP!)

->Chappy has been on this list with down arrows a couple times but he has been on fire.  5 HR, 18 runs+RBI & .400 BA in last 10. Underlying metrics are off the chart & suggest he’s very comfortable at the dish. PlateIQ is also vastly improved in that span. Love seeing the 23.8 Brl%.  Keep him if you got him, get him if you can.

Jeff McNeil (DOWN)

->Batting under the Mendoza line over his last 20 GP. 1 HR, 13 runs+RBI, .528 OPS, .236 wOBA & 49 wRC+ in that span. 26.2 HardHit% is not encouraging. .200 BABIP, great PlateIQ & near 20% LD rate is enough for me to hold but bench for the time being

There you have it a recap of the FBB MarketWatch from this past week.

Check out the FBB MarketWatch recap every single morning when the FBB market opens. Just search #FBBMarketWatch on twitter to follow whose value is up and who’s value is down and advice on what to do. Also, make sure to always check out High Heat for more fantasy baseball talk.

-Matty Kiwoom

Twitter: @MattyKiwoom

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