Fantasy Baseball Stonk Market: What to Look For as the Season Approaches
Over the past couple of weeks the stock market has been in the forefront of news. There must have been a full moon hovering over Wall St because seemingly overnight everyone I knew became a self-proclaimed Wolf of Wall Street. Immediately I was interested in the stonk market. But after waking up with my clothes torn in the middle of the woods wondering how I got there. I was not cut out to run with the wolves.
I decided to stay in my lane and stick with the market I am most familiar. That is the fantasy baseball market. Wall Street is still on my mind and it would be fun to combine both worlds. Time to compare players to the more popular “meme stocks.”
Dogecoin (this is a player that the community is delusional about how high their value will go)
Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena is being drafted as a top 60 player. He is getting his named called before players like Trent Grisham, Michael Conforto, Charlie Blackmon, Ketel Marte, JD Martinez and teammate Brandon Lowe. Those are just the outfielders. There are a number of other players I would take prior to Arozarena. I get it, Randy A had a fantastic post season run and he may very well be a decent ball player but taking him within the first 5 rounds is just not a good game plan to win.
Having Randy Arozarena as a teammate. Handy Arozarena. pic.twitter.com/Bwapm4R0iH
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 15, 2020
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The 25-year-old Arozarena has yet to even record 100 plate appearances. In 64 at bats in 2020 he swatted 7 home runs. In 1,129 at bats from 2017-2019, he hit 38 round trippers. That means in the truncated season he hit a home run 11% of the time he recorded an at bat and a 4% home run rate throughout his career. That is a significant jump. Given MLB’s use of the super, happy, fun balls last year (which they already stated they will not use in 2021) it only hurts Arozarena’s fantasy value. For you roto guys, he may provide some stolen bag value so maybe that’s why he could be on your radar.
Like I have said before I focus on points leagues and I am staying away from Randy Arozarena as a top 60 pick. You can invest if you want but if your expectations are of the “moon” variety, I would rethink that.
$AMC (this is a player with hype that will ultimately be a bust)
Teoscar Hernandez had a such a productive 2020. He was one of the better values in all of fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, he is being drafted like he is definitively that player. I just don’t think that is the case. As of now if you want to draft Teoscar Hernandez you will have to select him within the first 75 picks and that is just too rich for my blood.
Chaz Roe defies the laws of physics to bend this 81 mph Slider away from Teoscar Hernandez.
Was this last night’s nastiest pitch? https://t.co/caIM7ypHze pic.twitter.com/u0TJu8gCCT
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) September 24, 2018
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Hernandez was a force in the shortened season of 2020. However he may have the most glaring sample size red flag. He has always hit the ball hard. A 60-game sample, Hernandez was able to stay hot for the entire season. You must be thinking to yourself…” okay this all sounds like he is a good hitter.” You’re not wrong but his strike out rate was still as high as it has been throughout his career, which has been a major issue. On top of that he is on a team with a loaded roster that wants to win now. So if Hernandez goes into a deep slump at any point in time, he could lose at bats quickly. Just like I should have never jumped into $AMC, do NOT jump into any Teoscar Hernandez in fantasy baseball.
$GME (this is a player that is considered trash by many but will greatly overperform their current position)
In 2012, Carlos Correa was selected number 1 overall by the Houston Astros. The shortstop is being selected outside of the 125 in fantasy baseball. Carlos Correa has so much talent. If he can stay healthy, he can be a top 10 player at his position. I just think Correa is supremely talented and some of the names going ahead of him just don’t have the ceiling of a Carlos Correa. You can select him in the 10th round. Drafting an MVP caliber player after pick 100 is how you win fantasy leagues.
Carlos Correa’s Game 5 walk-off was electric.
The Spanish broadcast makes it even more electric. pic.twitter.com/XjiFBgUHhq
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 16, 2020
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Entering his 26th year old season, unlike another value pick Kris Bryant, he is still in the middle of his prime. Carlos Correa has yet to put together a full season of production mainly due to injuries but that is why he comes with tremendous value. It was good to see the shortstop healthy in 2020. His hard hit % was the highest it has been since 2017. That stat was consistent with the rest of his career so it could be that he was a little unlucky in the truncated season.
He was also very good in the playoffs. Playoff performances are tough to tout the following year but when a player is as good as Correa is worth noting. He batted .420 and mashed 6 home runs. If this is the year where Carlos Correa puts it all together, grabbing him around round 10 is a fantastic spot to jump in during draft season.
Closing Thoughts
The fantasy baseball market is starting to take shape. ADP data is getting more and more reliable. This is why now is the perfect time to start preparing for your drafts. Next week, I will do a deeper dive into the ADP data and see where and who have value (positive or negative) as we head into Spring Training. What has two thumbs and is super excited for fantasy baseball? This guy…sorry I love me a good dad joke.
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