Easy Money: Early NFL MVP Prop Bet Odds

If you’re a betting man like myself then you understand that you always double down on 11, mostly 10, sometimes a nine if the dealer is showing a six and that whatever you do on 16 be consistent about it. You are starving right now with casino’s closed across the country and no sports to bet on. You are actually saving money for the first time since you learned what a spread or flush was. But a simple little pandemic can’t stop the grind for us degenerates we are always looking for the next thing to throw our hard earned money at. With that comes some way too early NFL MVP betting odds, the reason I bring this up is because you can actually find incredible value in this futures bet and the formula to win is surprisingly simple.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_ig01KgbP2/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

Just from the last two years alone that’s $10 to win $1,000 which is absolutely insane! Even the lowest odds on that list, which is 2011 Aaron Rodgers $10 won you $40. Now I’m not sure where exactly they are getting these odds from, but there is still great value to be found. For those wondering I am getting my 2020 odds from here.

Let’s break down the formula of what goes into a NFL MVP.

Quarterback: It’s a QB driven league, and of the last 20 MVP’s 17 of them have been quarterbacks with the other three being running backs. In fact since 1986 when Lawerence Taylor won the award, only QB’s and RB’s have taken home the hardware.

Playoff Team: Only twice has the NFL MVP not made the playoffs, Johnny Unitas in 1967 and 1973 with OJ Simpson. So it’s a pretty obvious indicator that the team has to be good. And with the new playoff format it will be 14 teams playing postseason football.

Experience: A rookie has not won the MVP since Jim Brown did it in 1957. So sorry to Joe Burrow, Tua and Justin Herbert but they will not be included.

No Repeats: There have only been four times and three players to repeat as league MVP during the Super Bowl era. Peyton Manning (08-09 & 03-04), Brett Favre (95-97), Joe Montana (89-90), so not great odds sorry, Lamar Jackson, but you’re out.

Story: The narrative has to be a good one. It has to be something Colin Cowherd is going to talk about every day over the lunch hour segment every day during the fall. Some guys put up MVP numbers but the other guy has the better story and narrative thus he wins it.

The Favorites

Russell Wilson (+800)

Wilson probably deserved to win the MVP last season but was beat out by the emergence of Lamar Jackson being the better story. The Seahawks are not a playoff football team without Wilson, he alone is the definition of a teams most valuable player. Over the last three seasons combined he is averaging 63% completions, 35 touchdowns to just nine interceptions and 3,715 yards. He is my overall top pick for MVP this year and it might not be by what he actually does on the field but more of a lifetime achievement award as a “Sorry you actually earned this before but didn’t win it.”

Patrick Mahomes (+350)

The overall favorite according to Vegas, and given the parameters I laid out before about no consecutive winners I would not be picking him to win it all again this soon. But for some reason NFL media, talking heads and the like love this guy. He had a pedestrian Super Bowl and yet somehow took home game MVP honors and no one really questioned it. And it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility with all of his weapons coming back if he stays healthy, goes bonkers and throws 60 TD’s it’s tough not to give it to him.

Deshaun Watson (+1400)

In my humble opinion I would be taking Watson as my top choice if it wasn’t for Bill O’Brien. Watson has everything you could ask for in a modern NFL QB. Good arm, has the intelligence, character and moxie you want from a franchise signal caller. But his top receiver and one of the best wideouts in the game has been shipped away because of reasons. Now in terms of winning a MVP it could help him. Say a pissed off Watson leads the Texans to a division crown and a playoff berth, he could see some votes go his way because he did so much despite what he had.

Definitely Possible

Tom Brady (+1600)

If Tom Brady won the MVP it would make him the first player ever to win the MVP in three different decades. 2019 was certainly a down season for the GOAT, but imagine the narrative if he went to the downtrodden Tampa Bay Buccaneers and turned them into a winner, away from Belichick?  A division title and stats closer to his norm for the past decade and I can see Brady taking home the MVP award. Which is entirely possible given the talent he will be throwing the ball to. And while it would be painful for Pats fans to stomach see that happen, it would certainly help his case for the GOAT status with those people who still hold out that it’s Montana or Manning.

Kyler Murray (+2500)

Mahomes made the MVP leap in his second season in the league as did Lamar Jackson and both were +10000 odds to win the award. And as Murray enters his second season he has more experience than either Mahomes or Jackson did. Unfortunately for us, Vegas has wised up to the second year QB making that leap to super stardom and has adjusted Murrays odds as such. Still it’s great value if you’re banking on that happening again. Especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense which should inflate Murray’s numbers he’s a great play here if the Cardinals can make it out of the NFC West.

Aaron Rodgers (+2500)

Rodgers is always a threat to win it because of how insanely talented he is. It’s also insane that he has the same odds to win as Kyler Murray, incredible value here. He has the benefit of playing for a historic franchise in Green Bay, which guarantees that we will see him on a few prime time games and as the big time 4:00 slate game on Fox or CBS. And with the Packers drafting Jordan Love do we get an angry, rejuvenated Rodgers who’s out to make a point? If we do, I could see him taking home another MVP award.

Dak Prescott (+2000) or Carson Wentz (+2500)

I’m putting both of these guys on here at once because it would simply depend on who won the division. But let’s discuss both.

Dak Prescott: Like Rodgers, plays for the historically rich Dallas Cowboys which puts a constant spotlight on him no matter what. Last year we saw him take strides into becoming a guy that could challenge for an MVP. And with the addition of Ceedee Lamb and new head coach Mike McCarthy who was the man at the helm for Rodgers MVP seasons, if the Cowboys take that next jump and Dak is the reason for it, then he makes an easy choice.

Carson Wentz: He would have been the MVP in 2017 had he not gotten injured. He seemed like the next transcendent QB, making the Eagles look like geniuses for trading up to take him second overall. But injuries have gotten in the way of Wentz and becoming that guy. If he and the Eagles can stay healthy for a whole season then it’s a great story of perseverance. He still has the talent, he just needs to stay on the field.

Dark Horses

Baker Mayfield (+5000)

Imagine if Baker Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs for the first time since 2002? Imagine if he won a playoff game? The story would be unbelievable. Especially after a promising rookie season, and a disappointing, dysfunctional second year. Colin Cowherd wouldn’t be able to shut up about it. And the Browns are still, on paper, a very talented roster. Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Nick Chubb still headline the talent surrounding Mayfield. It’s all still there for Baker, he just has to finally put it together.

Phillip Rivers (+6600)

This almost reminds me of the Russell Wilson reasoning for the award. Stats wise, Rivers has already been a MVP caliber QB. But it would be more of a lifetime achievement award. We might finally gain an appreciation of what Rivers has always been if he takes the Colts to the playoffs and plays well in doing so. Indy is a good team, and from what they did in the NFL Draft ,they are all in on this brief window with Rivers at QB, giving him the chance to put up numbers, points and wins. And I think everyone would be fine and happy if Rivers won the MVP, a nice pat on the back, good job on his way out.

Saquon Barkley (+3000) or Christian McCaffrey (+4000)

We now get to our token running backs. Both are long shots here as I mentioned previously you have to basically be a QB to win this award but let’s entertain this idea none the less. Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win MVP and if you remember came just a few yards short of breaking the single season rushing record. He literally carried Christian Ponder and the Vikings to the playoffs where Joe Webb got crushed by the Packers in the Wild Card round. But if one of these two has an incredible season and leads their rebuilding team to the playoffs then it makes for an interesting conversation. But remember, while they might be your fantasy league MVP, they are probably not taking home the NFL MVP.

Long Shots

Jared Goff (+10000)

It wasn’t too long ago that it seemed like a forgone conclusion that Goff would be an NFL MVP and franchise QB for years to come. But Belichick spanked him in the super bowl and he suffered from a lackluster Rams offensive line and a banged up Todd Gurley not helping shoulder the load. What he does still have however is Sean McVay who is still a very bright offensive mind. The Rams went out and spent their first two draft picks on a running back and a wide receiver to help their signal caller. If the Rams win the incredibly tough NFC West, Goff could easily enter back into the MVP conversation and at those odds sign me up.

Drew Lock (+12500)

Lamar Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and showed some promise at the end of his rookie season. Wait no I meant Drew Lock, who went 4-1 in the final five games of the 2019 season. Could Joe Flacco’s rookie replacement win the MVP in consecutive seasons? The Broncos have certainly tried to help Lock with that goal through their 2020 draft picks. They supplied him with Jerry Jeudy who could be the best receiver in the draft to line up opposite of Cortland Sutton who already has a good connection with Lock. They then grabbed KJ Hamler, a speedster who could be his TY Hilton, Tyreek Hill type guy. And the Broncos for good measure drafted Albert Okwuegbunam, Lock’s tight end from his college days at Missouri, when they also already have Noah Fant a very talented second year tight end. The Broncos looked at the Chiefs and decided to fight fire with fire and plan on turning the AFC West into the Big 12. Drew Lock could put up silly numbers this season and catapult himself into the MVP discussion because we always like what’s new and shiny.

Conclusion

These are the 14 names I feel like will be in the running for MVP. Don’t buy into Vegas throwing out the names of guys who could win your fantasy league MVP compared to the NFL MVP. To put it simply, it’s the award for the quarterback with the best story on a winning team who did not win it the year before.

Out of the categories I have mentioned here are my top picks from each one to win.

Favorite:  Russell Wilson (+800)

Definitely Possible: Tom Brady (+1600)

Dark Horse: Baker Mayfield (+5000)

Long Shot: Drew Lock (+12500)

Good luck everyone, let’s win some money.

-Connor Ryan (@Connoryan68)