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ADP Breakdown: Players Draft Too High in Fantasy Baseball

“Pitchers and catchers are reporting” are 5 words that bring me so much joy.  Baseball is right around the corner which means your fantasy baseball drafts are also coming up. The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, Fantrax leagues, and others have already kicked off.  That means one thing.  ADP data is out there for fantasy team builders to dive into.

Let me be clear, just because I believe a player is being drafted too early does not mean I think he is a bad fantasy player.

Drafted Too High

Luis Robert: The young outfielder’s potential is as high as anyone’s but Robert is being drafted too high.  Team builders are having to use a top 3 or 4 pick to get Robert.  If I’m drafting outfielders there, I am looking at Starling Marte or George Springer.  I still have Robert at my OF 15 because he has the potential to hit 30 home runs.

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Daulton Varsho:  Many project Varsho as a top 10 catcher.  That is mainly due to his outfield eligibility.  If I do not get one of my top 6 catchers, I would rather wait on a catcher like Alejandro Kirk.

Clayton Kershaw:  The former Cy Young Award winner had a great 2020 season.  I still believe Kershaw has something left in the tank.  The fact of the matter is, the Dodgers are ready for the post season.  It makes sense to rest Kershaw frequently, so he is ready for October.  I have him 10 spots lower than consensus ADP.

Dinelson Lamet:  This call is simple.  I think he has an issue with his arm.  I do not think it is coincidence that the Padres picked up 12 starting pitchers this offseason.  If he proves to be healthy in Spring Training, Lamet will shoot up my rankings.

Adelberto Mondessi:  The Royals shortstop is always a torn in my side because I play points leagues.  His stolen base potential inflates his value so much.  Decent ball player but I do not value his game enough to draft him as a top 8 SS.  Now if Bobby Witt Jr comes up for KC, I will be excited for the Royals’ shortstop.

Yu Darvish:  Currently being drafted as a top 5 starting pitcher.  Given the Padres pitching depth, I expect a few breaks for Darvish in an attempt to keep him fresh.  His stuff is as filthy as anyone in the league, but I do not think he will get enough innings to be a top 5 ace.  Top 10 but not top 5.

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Make sure you check out the players I think are being drafted too low on couchguysports.com.  Fantasy baseball daft season comes fast so make sure you are keeping up.  Before you even ask.  My rankings will be coming out really soon so there is no need to panic.  Good luck and study up.

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– Matt Desrosiers (@MattyKiwoom on Twitter)

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