3 Ways The Patriots Can Beat The Chargers
The New England Patriots begin their crucial 6 game stretch this Sunday on the road against the Chargers. San Diego LA is coming off a Bye (they’re 5-6 after a Bye since 2010) and the Pats are on the heels of handing the Jets the thrashing of the NFL season so far. The Chargers have been good all year and the Pats seem to be finally piecing their puzzle together. While almost everyone viewed this game as an L for New England coming into the year, I don’t think it’s that simple. While Herbert has been good, Pats fans should feel confident going into this Week 8 matchup.
Here’s 3 ways the Patriots can beat the Chargers this weekend.
Run. The. Ball.
The Chargers have given up an alarming 162 yards a game on the ground this season putting them dead last in the league in that category. And with Damien Harris tallying 32 rushed for 207 yards and 3 TD’s. Don’t look now, but the second year back is quietly putting together a Top 10 Running Back season for 2021.
Damien Harris league ranks through seven weeks (@PFF):
1st in runs of 20+ yards (5)
2nd in 100+ yards games (3)
3rd in TD's (5)
5th in first downs (25)
7th in yards after contact (311)
7th in missed tackles (20)
8th in yards (437)#Patriots— Ryan Spagnoli (@Ryan_Spags) October 26, 2021
It’s no coincidence that the improvement in the ground game came right as the Pats OL started to play some good, consistent football. And while people may try to minimize his performance last week since it was against the pitiful Jets, Harris also had over 100 against the Cowboys. Dallas has had one of the best rush defenses all year, so it’s not like Harris is just eating against bad defense. This guy is really good and he’ll prove that this Sunday. Look for Harris to have his third consecutive game of 100+ yards rushing with maybe a season high in rush attempts.
Slow Herbert Down
So far this season, Herbert is 6th in YPG (295), 9th in QBR, 14th in passer rating and 9th in passing TD’s (14). Those are good numbers, but not great. A lot of Pats fans (and NFL fans probably) think Herbert is having a much better year than what he’s actually doing. In fact, Herbert is on par with how he was playing last season…and that should make Pats fans salivate. Through 6 games this season, Herbert has 49 fewer yards, 1 more pick, 1 less TD and a slightly better QBR than he has through 6 games last season. I bring that up because in 2020, Belichick throttled Herbert when these teams played.
The New England Patriots held the Chargers/Herbert to only 209 yards (2nd lowest for him that year), his lowest completion % (49.1) and an absurdly low QBR (7, that’s on a scale of 1-100). Oh, and they sacked him 3 times while picking him off twice. Now I know that almost every rookie QB has games like this against Belichick, but you have to think the Pats can implement a similar gameplan to confuse Herbert. Especially with a pass rush that can get to the QB by only rushing 4. They can somewhat sell out to stop the pass since they’re going against an offense who is 8th worst at running the ball. Look for Belichick to throw some different looks at Herbert Sunday and force him into a couple costly mistakes.
Play Action
Mac Jones has been really good pretty much all season running the play action. Going into the Jets game last week, Mac was Top 5 in the league when running the play action.
Mac Jones continues to excel in play-action passing situations, hitting Hunter Henry for the 20-yard TD. Coming into this game, he was completing 77.8 percent of his play-action passes, fourth-best of any QB with more than 15 attempts, according to @PFF
— Christopher Gasper (@cgasper) October 17, 2021
And in case you were wondering if the kept that trend up last week, he most certainly did, in impressive fashion.
Mac Jones was 11-of-13 for 169 yards and a TD with play-action yesterday. #Patriots
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) October 25, 2021
This should work in tandem with what I said early. If you run the ball down the Chargers’ throat early and succeed, that’ll open up the play action. I know it’s one of the oldest clichés in football, but it’s true here. The Chargers have one of the leagues best pass defenses, so you’re not going to be able to just drop back and throw the ball down the field. If their linebackers and DB’s start creeping up or looking in the backfield, that’s when you can start to work in some big plays. But again, it all hinges on the run game. If you can run the ball against the Chargers, you’ll likely run your way to a win. It’s that simple.
Conclusion
To say this game is important would be an understatement. The New England Patriots are sitting JUST outside the playoffs right now in the 9th Seed while the The Chargers are currently the 6th Seen in the AFC with a 4-2 record. The teams in front of New England (Browns and Steelers) are facing off this weekend, so if the Pats can win, they’ll keep themselves within shouting distance of a playoff spot. They may actually snag the 7 Seed if the Browns lose since they’ll have the same record, but I’m not going to pretend I’m smart enough to know what happens in that case or how the seeding plays out.
All I know is that you almost need a win this Sunday. Not only to prove to the NFL that you’re a good team, but to keep yourself in the playoff hunt. You don’t want to lose here going into the hardest 6 game stretch of the year. The Patriots need to take the momentum from last weeks trouncing of NY and come out of LA this Sunday with a win. LFG.
(Featured Photo Credit www.patriots.com)
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Mike Sullivan (@msully5433 on Twitter)