One of the best things about fantasy football is that we as team builders can game plan for the week’s matchup. What WR should I play? Does my defenses current matchup warrant streaming for this week? Gathering information is the best and maybe only real way to potentially improve your chances at winning your head-to-head matchup. Here are 3 stats you need to know for Week 3.
Baltimore’s defense has allowed 752 passing yards (most in NFL)
This Sunday the Baltimore Ravens head to Detroit to battle the Lions. So far in the young season, the Lions have given up 76 points. On the other side of that coin the Ravens currently have a top 5 scoring offense. It is a fairly safe bet that Lamar Jackson and company head indoors and score a ton of points. If Ravens are the high-powered offense that is going to go bananas, why is the stat to know about their defense?
The over/under on this game is right around 50 total points (7th highest on slate) which supports the possibility of the Ravens scoring a lot. But it also suggests that the Lions will have to operate under a high paced game script. Jared Goff has thrown for 584 yards (11th in NFL) and has attempted 93 passes (1st in NFL) through 2 weeks. If you are looking for a desperation QB streamer or a cheap QB for your DFS lineup, Goff could be you guy.
Goff isn’t the only low-key fantasy player in Week 3. Quintez Cephus is a strong flex consideration, especially if you are in a bind. Tyrell Williams is now on the IR and Cephus saw the highest WR snap count last week. He has also seen 7 targets in each of the 1st two games. The wide receiver has turned those looks into 7 receptions (50%, not great) 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 1 the Ravens secondary lost track of Zay Jones of the Raiders for the game winning score. I could see Quintez Cephus doing something similar in garbage time this week.
THAT WAS FAST
Quintez Cephus 1st TD (+1800) 💰
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 21, 2021
DeVonta Smith ranks 2nd in unrealized air yards with 169
Through 2 weeks, Smith has seen 15 targets. Eight in Week 1 and 7 in Week 2. But last week, Smith only hauled in 2 of those 7. This is where a lot of his unrealized air yards come from. Air yards can indicate whether a player is being utilized to convert on big yardage plays. It can also tell us team builders that a player is getting garbage targets (down field passes that have little chance of working). Smith’s QB, Jalen Hurts isn’t known for being super accurate so unrealized air yards could always be high for the rookie WR but given his talent and Hurts’ overall ability. I believe the large amount of unrealized air yards is an indicator of big plays on the horizon.
DEVONTA SMITH IS ALREADY SCORING TOUCHDOWNS. #FlyEaglesFly
— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2021
Some of those big plays could come from this weekend’s primetime matchup against the Cowboys. The implied total for this game is 51.5 points. So the house is leaning towards an offense battle rather than a slower defensive game. The Cowboys have surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Even last week when their offensive game plan was to slow the pace and run the ball, Los Angeles’ wide outs still produced. If you roster Smith and are worrying about if you should play him or someone else, I’m here to say. Play the man and Sunday Night Football will be fun to watch.
Kansas City’s defense has 10 QB pressures on the season (worst in NFL)
On Sunday the Chiefs host their division rival Los Angeles Chargers in a potentially juicy fantasy football matchup. The over/under on that game is 56.5 total points which is the highest in Week 3. So a shoot out if absolutely a potential outcome this weekend. You don’t have to be a sharp to know that the KC offense is one of the best on the planet. Pat Mahomes and his supporting cast are usually up to come out guns a blazing.
This throw from Justin Herbert… #BoltUp
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Well, the Chargers offense is on the verge of becoming an elite unit in the NFL. Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Willams make up the nucleus of that could be one of the leagues most prolific by years’ end. LA’s most glaring issue was their offensive line. This past off season that took drastic steps to improve their QB protectors. When you mix the improved offensive line, the ineffectiveness of the Chiefs pass rushers, and the slate high implied total. This is the blow-up week for the Chargers offensive players. Anyone playing fantasy football already has their Kansas City Chiefs in their starting lineups. But believe me when I say, get your Chargers in your starting lineup as well. Whether it is season long or DFS. Even Jared Cook or Jalen Guyton may produce if it is a sling fest.
May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor
Now take this information, digest it, think about it, and use it to make decisions as you head into your Week 3 battle. If you enjoy this and would like to see more fantasy football content, check out CGS’s Fantasy Football Show…Kiwoom and Jones. You can also find the fantasy football market watch throughout the week on Twitter. Kiwoom and Jones’ Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings.
-Matty Kiwoom (@MattyKiwoom)
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