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PGA Championship Predictions

Tomorrow we kick off our first major of the year and I couldn’t be more excited.  The PGA Championship also holds a different value than the other three because the money pool is always by far the biggest one.  So instead of playing for a jacket or a trophy, these guys play for the check!

Now I have been watching a ton of golf during this quarantine and there might not be a hotter golfer coming into this major than Justin Thomas (10-1).  JT, along with Brooks Koepka, are the co-favorites to take home the championship.  But who else should we watch out for?

For starters, we got some pretty awesome pairings in the first two days.

Forget who you have money on for a second and just admire the pairings.  To be honest, I’m not sure who the best group is here.  I think it’s Tiger, Rory, and JT but not by a lot.  The only thing I wished the PGA did was put Koepka and DeChambeau in the same group.  These two just love to go back and worth at each other.  It’s great TV because Brooks is a troll and DeChambeau takes everything so serious and cries over it.

But let’s get back to business here.  CBS Sports has Brooks Koepka 10-1, Justin Thomas 10-1, Bryson DeChambeau 11-1, Rory McIlroy 14-1, Jon Rahm 14-1.  I hate to pick the favorites but JT or Koepka are going to be at the top or around it.  For JT, I’m not sure if there is a hotter golfer in the game right now.  He has won three times this year and has won the PGA Championship in the past.  I really expect him to be there on Sunday.  As for Koepka, he has been playing really good as of recent.  He struggled early on in the year but he has tuned his game to being back to how strong of a golfer he is.  And not to mention he’s out for revenge after dunking that ball in the pond last week only down by 1.

Outside of him and JT, you still have the notable names like Rory, Rahm (poor guy was No. 1 for a week), DJ (20-1), Tiger and then solid, solid golfers who are having pretty good years like Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.  But the group of guys to watch out for are the “middle-odds” guys.  This group is absolutely stacked with extremely talented, well-named golfers who could pop off and be at the top come Saturday.  Guys like Patrick Reed 45-1, Justin Rose 50-1, Jordan Spieth 50-1, Tony Finau 50-1, Tommy Fleetwood 50-1, Gary Woodland 50-1, Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1, and Adam Scott 50-1.  Any one of those guy can fucking play and I mean PLAY and the fact they are coming in at such a great value at 50-1 is crazy.

So for my official picks, I hate doing it but I have to go with JT or Koepka.  I think they will continue the battle like they did last week and both will be there come Sunday.  Unfortunately they are both the favorites, and rightfully so.  They are the best two golfers entering this week and both are very hungry to continue that streak.

As for my dark horse pick/value bet, I love Webb Simpson as a dark horse to win outright and Justin Rose as my value pick.  Simpson has been very sneaky this year. He’s finished in the top 10 in what seems like every event he plays in.  I think time after time, this will turn into wins and who knows this weekend might be it.  As for Rose, he has even come out and said he’s been playing like shit.  I don’t think there’s anything scarier than hearing former No. 4 player in the world say he can do better.  And at 50-1?!  I’m not sure how you don’t throw some money on him.

-John (Uncle_Mac4)

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