We are in the midst of fantasy baseball season. There is nothing like being able to watch real games and make decisions based on actual performances. My latest rankings are out now. (Link below) Some players make massive jumps up the ranks and some players have fallen down the charts. The ranks are based on a couple different criteria. One is what the player has done up to now. Current and past trends that may correlate with potential future performance. And what is to be expected for the rest of the season. Here are the biggest movers and shakers in the most updated Matty Kiwoom Positional Ranks.
Ty France 2B (SEA) NR –> 2B #7
The Mariners slugger has been on the cusp of a breakout for a couple of years. In 2021, it seems like France is fully emerging as a bat that opposing pitchers need to worry about. He currently has over 30 runs and RBIs. France’s plate discipline is better than your av-er-age bear.
Currently within the 67st percentile in regard to his BB rate and the man does not chase bad pitchers. Because he is waiting pitchers out until he gets a good pitch to hit, Ty France is barreling balls consistently. On top of that he is swinging and missing less which has led to a better strike out percentage. To be precise France is in the 56th percentile. An improvement from his career average. Team builders who roster Mr. France are saying “oui” to starting him every day.
Eugenio Suarez 3B (CIN) 3B #10 –> 3B #15
Suarez has been nothing but a major bummer for fantasy baseball team builders. Off to a horrible start to the 2021 campaign. Suarez has the lowest average exit velocity since 2017. The third basemen still hit 26 homers that year but that is low without the other production stats given where he was drafted. Suarez is currently striking out 12% more than his career average. And his batting average of about .140 is not an indication of bad fortune. Eugenio’s xBA is in the .170’s. That is bad enough that 98% of baseball is better in this regard.
The Cincinnati slugger has smashed 30 home runs in each of the last 3 seasons. I’m counting 2020 because he was on pace for 40.5. The power is there but why isn’t it being realized. He still made my top 15 but another month like this, you can bet Eugenio Suarez will no longer make the cut.
Corbin Burnes SP (MIL) SP #20 –> SP #5
The Milwaukee Brewers right hander is dominating opposing lineups. Fantasy baseball team builders are witnessing Burnes take that next step. He is becoming not only the Brewers ace but a fantasy ace. Corbin doesn’t walk anyone. No, like he has yet to walk anyone. His control with his entire pitch mix has been phenomenal. Speaking of phenomenon, Burnes’s baseball savant page looks like a create-a-player I made when I was 12. His swinging strike percentage is sitting close to 20%. That is elite. Burnes’s CSW% is near 40%. That is also elite. You try hitting a 97 MPH sinker. Watch some of his highlights. It ain’t easy. Oh! All of his off-speed/breaking pitches can WHIFFS over 50% of the time.
This is no fluke either. Burnes isn’t out on the bump getting lucky. His ERA is a razor thin 1.53 but his xERA is 1.17. The righty’s BABIP does not look unrealistic and the FIP is 0.52. He is simply dominating right now. If you selected Corbin Burnes, most likely as your SP 2, good for you. Burnes to the bank for the rest of the season…. injuries notwithstanding.
Corbin Burnes…down 3-0 in the count.
Will he walk a hitter????
F no. He’s Corbin Burnes. pic.twitter.com/YycSnv54Z5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2021
Luis Castillo SP (CIN) SP #9 –> SP #16
It is still early in the 2021 campaign. So far Luis Castillo has been one of the most disappointing SP in fantasy. Rostering Castillo meant that you probably used a super early draft selection. He has not pitched like the top 10 SP that I had thought he’d be. First things first, Luis has lost his giddy up. All four of his pitches has lost anywhere between 1 & 2 MPH. That might not sound like much, but a loss of power can be disastrous for pitchers. Whenever a pitcher starts losing some velo, it is routinely followed by a major adjustment. The dip in speed may be the reason behind why all of his contact percentages are up significantly. It could also lend an answer to the 5% decrease to Castillo’s SwStr%.
Now it might not stay like this all year. There are some underlying metrics that may suggest a turn around is possible. Maybe even probable. Luis Castillo’s BABIP is more than 50 points higher than many projection systems. The Reds’ starter’s strand rate would be his worst percentage of his entire career. By a large margin at that. About a quarter of the fly balls that Castillo is surrendering is leaving the yard. A statistic that seems bound for a massive positive regression. Both his expected ERA & FIP are significantly higher than his actual ERA & FIP. Should you buy low? Check out the daily FBB MarketWatch report to find out.
Rankings will change throughout the season. Players will rise up and fall down. Most changes will not be noteworthy. Most will just reflect a window of which their performances were monitored. But some players will have meteoric climbs and devastating collapses. Those are the players that team builders should take a longer look at. The biggest movers & shakers.
Check out the Fantasy Baseball MarketWatch every single morning when the FBB market opens. Just search #FBBMarketWatch on twitter to follow whose value is up and who’s value is down and advice on what to do.