After Monday night’s National Championship game between Alabama and Ohio State, it got me thinking a lot about the state of college football and specifically the College Football Playoff. After Alabama’s dominate 52-24 win over OSU, I asked myself, has the college football playoff failed us? If you asked me this a month ago I would say we need to expand to 8 teams. But after watching Notre Dame, Clemson, and Ohio State all get blown out. I realized how much of a fail the CFP has been.
Let’s break it down, the CFP has been around since 2014-15 and I can count on one hand how many competitive games it has produced. We have seen a total of 21 CFP games and I think that is a fair enough sample size to officially rule this a bust. Out of 21 CFP we have had six games determined by 7 points or less. That comes out to 29% of the games are competitive, which in return means that 71% are blow outs. But why is that? What the CFP was supposed to do was give the top 4 teams a competitive chance to win a National Championship. But all this has proved is that we need to go back to the BCS model and eliminate the staleness fans are facing. The BCS National Championship was around for 16 years (1998-2013), and we saw 16 National Championships. Out of those 16 games, we had seven of them be decided by 7 points or less for a 44% competitive rate, where as 56% was a blow out.
So after having played five more games than the BCS model, we can very clearly see that the added competitiveness the CFP Committee was going for didn’t work. The fact that the CFP model played 5 more games and none of them were decided by 7 points is absurd, and unfortunately we are signed on for this through the 2024 season. But my question is why. Why hasn’t the CFP been competitive? Is it because of committee? Are they truly putting the wrong four teams in there on a yearly basis? I’m not sure. For example last year with LSU and this year with Alabama, no one was beating them. Yet, fans still wanted Notre Dame and Ohio State to not make the playoffs! People such as myself said Cincinnati should have made it and Texas A&M made a case for it. But at the end of the day, neither of these teams would have made a difference. Which further proves that the NCAA never cared about the competitiveness but only about the brand and money being made.
The BCS model only had one Championship game, whereas the CFP model has 3 in my mind. They treat both semi final games like a Championship and then of course the National Championship game itself. That allows you two times more coverage, talk, tickets, sales, marketing, it’s just more. It gives NCAA more than just showcasing one game. But it is bad for the sport and in return it is going to back fire if they expand it to 8 teams. I can say, fans don’t want it. I wanted it but now I don’t. I think the best thing for the sport would be moving it back to 1 vs 2 because then you will at least get a competitive game and not a blow out.
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