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FBB MarketWatch Deep Dive: Francisco Lindor

Each and every morning (including weekends) the Fantasy Baseball MarketWatch report drops on my twitter page (@MattyKiwoom).  Your one stop to see how players are trending and some advice on what to do given the up-to-date trends.  The daily reports are great but sometimes particular players need a deeper dive into their numbers.  Let’s jump into the data for a very frustrating player.

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When Francisco Lindor was dealt to the New York Mets, I believed the short stop was going to catapult into superstardom.  The baseball season is well into month number two and Lindor has preformed like…well, the opposite of a superstar.  As of now he looks like a bust.  Team builders needed to select Lindor in the 2nd round.  It is safe to say that he has yet to play up to preseason expectations.  Rostering struggling stars can cause you to rip your hair out.  What is the right move?  Selling? Showing off dem diamond hands?  Let’s dive deep into Lindor’s statistical profile and maybe…just maybe it will help you decide.

Francisco Lindor

Please allow me to start with a bit of information that I don’t completely know what to make of it.  It doesn’t necessarily indicate a lot, but it does provide a tiny ray of hope.  I am talking about Francisco Lindor’s home – road splits.  Lindor is better at his home ballpark than he is on the road. Despite Citi Field not being a hitters’ haven by any stretch.  Matter of fact I feel like a few of their division rivals have more batter friendly parks than in Queens.

The short stop is batting .283 at home and .113 on the road.  Doubling the number of base knocks.  Lindor has struck out only 9.4% at home oppose to 18.6% on the road.  Still a solid mark but it is worth noting that it’s double than at home.  One last thing of note is that his home wRC+ is 117.  On the road? On the road his wRC+ is 38!  Not great Bob!

This is why I think team builders who roster Lindor should find a bit of optimism is this information.  Even though the difference isn’t major, the Mets have more home games remaining than they do road games.  So if Lindor hits better in Citi Field at least he will have more opportunities.  Other than his isolated power metric, Lindor is producing about to what he was expected based on the best projection systems.  Home runs and extra base hits increase as the weather improves.  Another underlying statistic that lends hope to Lindor rosterers is his road BABIP.  Currently sits about .125 which is certainly going to improve.  BABIP tends to regress to the mean whether it is positive or negative regression.

Righty vs Lefty

Another trend I noticed in Francisco Lindor’s profile is that he is producing better from the right side of the plate than the left side.  His on base is about 50 points higher, slugging percentage is about 200 points higher, and his wOBA is about 100 points higher.  Francisco’s ISO from the right side is right around where it was projected to be.  Lastly let’s look at the wRC+ from both sides.  *PAUSE* The reason wRC+ is an important metric to look at is because it is supposed to represent the purest form of a batter’s ability to create runs. *UNPAUSE* Batting lefty, he has a 57 wRC+ which is almost 50% below average.  Batting righty, it is a 115 wRC+, about 15% above replacement.

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Producing from the right side has always meant mega seasons for Lindor historically.  That is because he has always been very good swinging left-handed so when the other side is keeping up, well that equals a lot of production at the plate overall.  Maybe as his left-handed at bat improve his fantasy stock will explode.

A Change Needed?

The last trend that is worth monitoring is Lindor’s lack of aggression at the plate.  There are 3 swing percentage metrics that show a decrease.  Meaning Lindor is just not swinging the bat as much.  Swings on pitches outside of the zone, swings on pitches inside the strike zone, and total swings are all down about 6%.  On the other hand, Lindor’s called strike percentage is the highest it has been since 2017.  Up about 3%.  These stats tell me that if Lindor becomes more aggressive as the season goes one than his stats could improve.  A trend he could very well affect with a change in his approach.

Mr. Smile has the talent, he has the track record, and some of his analytical statistics suggest positive direction.  Lindor’s current BABIP and ISO would be the lowest mark of his career by a long shot.  Not to mention projection systems like the BAT and ZiPS would be terrible off.  Something that doesn’t happen all that often.  After looking at his 2021 profile, I would bet both metrics drastically improve over the remainder of the season.  Especially the BABIP and when to starts to change direction you can expect it to correct itself in a big way.

Roster Advice

If you roster Francisco Lindor do not trade him.  No one is going to pay 100%.  You’d be lucky to get 75 cents on the dollar.  You will be inundated with offers that consist of batters outproducing their abilities and pitchers who have produced but aren’t league wide aces.  I mean if you get an offer that you would accept if Lindor was cooking than so be it make the deal, but we all know that isn’t going to be on the table.  Be smart out there and continue hold onto Francisco Lindor.

Now if you do not roster Lindor, go ahead and make one of those offers to the Lindor team.  Try and buy in on a talent profile that was good enough to be selected with a top 2 round pick a couple months ago.  Take a shot.  If you can acquire a player like Francisco Lindor for anything less than 100% of his initial value than that is a move worth making.

Check out the Fantasy Baseball MarketWatch every single morning when the FBB market opens. Just search #FBBMarketWatch on twitter to follow whose value is up and who’s value is down and advice on what to do.

-@MattyKiwoom

-@HighHeatFBB

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