3 Reasons Patriots Fans Should Feel Confident Against The Bucs

I’m not sure if you’ve heard or not, but there’s a big game going down tonight in the NFL between the Patriots and Tampa Bay Bucs. I only ask because all the lead up to the Bucs vs Patriots has been centered around Tom Brady. Sure there’s been a bit of Belichick disdain sprinkled in, but the coverage of this game has been dominated by Brady. And rightly so, to an extent. This is the homecoming of homecomings. GOAT vs GOAT.

But like I mentioned, there is an actual game happening. Not just one man returning to the building he built to go against the coach who helped build him. And while many Pats fans have seemingly already counted this as a loss, I disagree. There’s plenty of reasons the hometown team can pull this one out.

Reason #1: The Bucs Defense Is Very, Very Bad

How bad you ask? Well if they continue on this trajectory, they will end the season with the worst pass defense in NFL history. But even if you just look where they stand right now, giving up 338 pass yards per game over the first 3 weeks of the season, they’re the 14th worst pass D in history of that span. The notion that the Bucs have a good defense is kind of revisionist history to an extent. They had the 29th ranked pass D last season to end the year. But they turned it on in the playoffs/Super Bowl so everyone seemed to forget that fact.

The horrid Bucs pass defense isn’t just bad with giving up yards either. They have given up 9 passing TD’s this season, which is the most in the league. They’re also allowing opposing QB’s a 72.2 completion percentage which is 4th worst in the league. And on top of all that, they’re allowing 29.3 points per game, which in the 6th most in the league.

And when it comes to getting to the QB, they’re almost just as bad. They currently sit dead last in the league with only 3 sacks on the year. And while sacks aren’t everything, they’re not great at getting pressure either. They only have 27 pressures on the year with 10 QB hurries. While those numbers aren’t bad on the surface, this is a team that leads the league in blitzing the opposing team with 61 blitz calls on the season. For a team that gets after the quarterback that much, you’d expect more production.

There’s a few other somewhat random, but pretty telling stats as well. They sit at 31st in the league at TFL (Tackle for loss) with 7 on the year. That means they aren’t creating pressure and tackling the ball carrier behind the line. They also allow far and away the most YAC (yards after catch) in the league with 601. This is important because the Patriots like to run a lot of screens and short passes. So going against a defense that allows you to run with the ball seems like an area to attack if you’re Josh McDaniels.

Reason #2: The Patriots Defense Is Pretty Good

Another fact that you wouldn’t know if you solely watched the media’s coverage of this game is that the Pats have a pretty good defense. They’re currently ranked 5th overall and a lot of that is due to their pass defense.

The Patriots have allowed the 3rd fewest passing TD’s this season with only 3. And when it comes to yards, they’re even better. Allowing only 159 pass yards per game, they currently sit 2nd in the league in that category. And while the Bucs are the 4th worst in the league at opposing QB completion percentage, the Pats are the 4th best. While opposing QB’s only have a 59.3 completion percentage against them, the Patriots D is very tough to throw on. This defensive no-fly zone has propelled the Patriots to 5th in the league in point allowed with only 17 per game.

And when it comes to TFL, the Pats sit at 3rd in the league with 17. With guys like Judon, Uche, Bentley, Hightower and more, this defense gets in the backfield and makes plays when they do. And as for YAC, New England doesn’t let you run with the ball once you catch it. They’ve only given up 141 YAC, which is 2nd fewest in the league. It’s not secret that the Pats run defense leaves much to be desired, but their pass defense is very, very good.

Reason #3: Bill Belichick Knows What Brady Does

Bill Belichick had a quote earlier this week that got me unnecessarily excited:

Bill Belichick said today that Tom Brady is running the same passing offense with the Buccaneers as the one he ran with the Patriots.

"100%. You could call almost every play from the flare control to the protection, similar to the way we do it."

— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) September 29, 2021

That’s not the entire quote, but Belichick goes on to basically say that Brady is running a very similar passing offense to what he ran in New England. That’s big. Who do you think oversaw that same offense for YEARS while Brady was here? You guessed it: Bill Belichick. If anyone knows how to stop his own offense, it’s the guy who coached it for 2 decades. I’m not saying it’s going to be a walk in the park at all, but it’s definitely worth noting.

If Belichick knows what you are trying to do, odds are he’s going to be able to stop you. Or at the very least slow you down. And I know what you’re saying “Well Brady can say the same thing about the defense he’ll be facing!” And you’re right…to an extent. Belichick changes his defense on a week by week bases. And Brady didn’t take every rep against that defense in practice while he was here either. So while Brady may know a few of the formations the Pats D will use, Belichick will likely recognize almost every play Brady tries to run. That’s advantage home team.

BONUS Reason #4: The Emotional Game

Tom Brady played for the Patriots for 2 decades. That’s a long, long time. I don’t care how good you are at ‘shutting out the noise’, you can’t shut out all the noise. This is no doubt going to be a very emotional game for Brady. And who knows how he’s going to respond. And yes, Belichick and a few players have played with Brady for a long time, but it’s not quite the same.

Belichick handling his emotions while on the sideline is much easier than Brady handling his while trying to run and offense on the field. And while there are a few players like McCourty and Hightower who have played years with Brady, the majority of this defense has only played with Tom for a couple years or so. The emotion that Brady will have to handle is much more impactful than that of the majority of the Patriots.

In fact, you could hear it in almost all of the Patriots players voices when they were constantly asked about Brady. And none stick out more than this response by former Raven, Matt Judon:

My exchange with #Patriots LB Matt Judon, when asked to describe Tom Brady's game/aura. @wpri12

"Bro, he's the next QB we've got to play … It's not like we're afraid of what Tom Brady can do." pic.twitter.com/d3cUEpPAfU

— Morey Hershgordon (@MHershgordon) September 30, 2021

The majority of this Patriots defense views this week as just another game. An important game, give their record and the season implications, but still a game nonetheless. It’s impossible for Brady to truly feel that same way.

So I hope this article gives my fellow Patriots fans hope for tonight. I know it’s been tough this week with national and local media assuming that the Tampa Bay Bucs Brady’s are going to hand 50 and walk all over your team. It’s also been infuriating to see almost every talking head, radio host and NFL fan across the board paint Bill Belichick as the villain. But at the end of the day, there’s still a game to be played. And the Patriots are more than capable of pulling this one out.

(Featured Photo Credit www.sportingnews.com)

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Mike Sullivan (@msully5433 on Twitter)